Forecast of a new housing price surge of up to 27%, a warning of heavy rain on the coast, and a scandal over the sale of a building for a U.S. migrant detention centre.
The cycle repeats: why British Columbia could face a new housing price surge of up to 27%
A new forecast from the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) paints a troubling picture for the province’s housing market. Analysts warn that without urgent government action the market could repeat the destructive “boom-and-bust” cycle seen after the 2008 recession, leading to a sharp rise in prices and a new affordability crisis by the early 2030s.
According to a report published on Daily Hive, the current situation shows worrying parallels with the period after the 2008 financial crisis. Back then weak demand led to a buildup of unsold housing and a sharp slowdown in construction. When demand returned in the latter half of the 2010s, a shortage of new supply triggered a rapid price surge — nearly 47% over a decade — which produced an affordability crisis. Today, BCREA warns, the province risks following the same script.
A key problem now is the record level of completed but unsold new homes. There are currently more than 7,000 such units on the market in British Columbia — the highest number since the late 1990s. Nearly two-thirds of that volume are condominiums, reflecting a deep downturn in the pre-sales market. Pre-sales are the practice of selling units in a building under construction to buyers before or during construction. These funds are often critical for developers to secure full construction financing from banks, which typically require 65–70% of a project to be sold at the pre-sales stage. The collapse of this market in 2025 — driven by high interest rates, economic uncertainty and rising development levies — led to a wave of project cancellations, bankruptcies and construction freezes.
While high inventories of unsold homes can temporarily restrain prices, BCREA warns that a halt in construction creates a massive long-term risk. History shows housing demand always rebounds. When that happens, the lack of new supply can quickly ignite a new round of price increases. A particular danger is the time lag in the construction sector: major residential projects take many years from concept to completion. If developers scale back activity during a downturn, the housing shortage won’t appear immediately but later — just as demand returns and the market cannot respond quickly. Such periods of weak construction often precede sharp price spikes.
BCREA’s forecast suggests unsold inventories will grow through 2026 before peaking. As projects are delayed or cancelled, new construction volumes will fall toward the end of the decade. Written-off supply could peak around 2027 and then begin to decline as demand returns. Under that scenario, adjusted for inflation, British Columbia housing prices could rise nearly 27% by 2032, with the fastest growth expected toward the end of the period.
The report also explains the important concept of “vacancy chains,” also known as housing “filtering.” The idea is that building new, typically more expensive housing allows households to move into it, freeing up their older, more affordable homes for other buyers. In this way, a flow of new construction revitalizes the whole market, increasing turnover and supply at all levels. “Without new construction the housing market can struggle to absorb new demand and become stagnant, with lower turnover and fewer options for households. As a result, the supply of homes available for sale shrinks, making housing prices vulnerable even to small demand shocks,” the report says.
To prevent a catastrophic outcome, BCREA calls for immediate policy measures. On the demand side, the association recommends expanding the federal GST rebate for new housing — extending it not only to first-time buyers but to all purchasers. This would help reduce inventories and improve the economics of new projects. The report also includes a controversial suggestion to revise restrictions on foreign buyers in the pre-sales market for new construction. The authors argue that, unlike speculation on the resale market, allowing non-residents to buy at the pre-sales stage could help projects reach financing thresholds faster, increase overall supply and strengthen vacancy chains. A similar model works successfully in Australia.
On the supply side, the report points to rapidly rising construction costs and developer levies that are squeezing project profitability. BCREA urges municipalities to consider alternative infrastructure financing methods, such as issuing municipal bonds with tax incentives. This would allow local governments to borrow more cheaply, build necessary infrastructure and avoid passing all costs onto developers and ultimately homebuyers.
“While weak demand in recent years may create the illusion of short-term relief, the underlying market dynamics remain unstable,” BCREA summarizes. The association insists governments must act quickly to reduce unsold inventories and restore sustainable construction rates. Under the most aggressive policy intervention scenario, price growth by 2032 could be limited to 9.4% instead of the 27% projected under current trends. “Mean reversion is a powerful force in the statistical universe. Simply put, we should not wait until demand returns with a roar to start acting,” the report concludes.
Heavy rain warning for British Columbia’s south coast
Meteorologists are warning residents of the south coast of British Columbia about an approaching period of intense precipitation. According to reporting in CTV News, the region — including Vancouver — is expected to receive significant rainfall, which could lead to localized flooding and hazardous road conditions.
Authorities and emergency services are urging people to exercise extreme caution. The forecasted downpours are associated with an atmospheric front bringing moist Pacific air. For context: an atmospheric front is the boundary between two air masses with different temperatures and humidity; when warm, moisture-laden air meets cooler air, extended and heavy precipitation often results. That is the situation unfolding over the region. The key issue is not just the total rainfall but its intensity in a short period, which increases the risk of flash floods, especially in low-lying and urbanized areas where storm drainage systems may be overwhelmed. Locals are advised to avoid travel if visibility deteriorates on roads, check the condition of storm drains near their homes and monitor updates from official sources such as Environment Canada. This warning underscores how variable coastal Canadian weather can be and how important it is to be prepared for sudden changes, particularly in the fall-winter season when such events are common.
Canadian company at center of scandal over sale of building to U.S. immigration authorities
A major Canadian corporation has found itself at the centre of a political scandal after it emerged that a building it developed in the U.S. will be used as a migrant detention and processing centre. Jim Pattison Group, based in Vancouver, said it did not know the building’s ultimate purpose when the deal was made, but that did not stop local politicians from calling for a boycott of its business.
The Jim Pattison Group, one of Canada’s largest private corporations, is in an awkward position after the British Columbia government warned businesses about cooperating with U.S. immigration enforcement. As Global News reports, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security is in the process of purchasing a building owned by Jim Pattison Developments to use as a facility for detaining and processing undocumented migrants. Company records show Pattison acquired the Ashland, Virginia, building for about $10.4 million in 2022, and construction was completed in early 2024.
In a statement released Wednesday, the development group explained that after operational needs changed the property was publicly listed for sale or lease, and an offer from a U.S. government contractor was accepted. “Some time later we learned who the ultimate owner would be and the proposed use of the building,” the company said. They stressed that the transaction is still subject to certain approvals and closing conditions, and the company “remains committed to complying with all applicable laws and regulations” during the divestment. The group noted it generally does not comment on private deals, but acknowledged the immigration and enforcement debate is charged and has intensified recently. “We respect that this issue is deeply important to many people,” they added.
Those assurances did not satisfy political opponents. The British Columbia Green Party has already called for a boycott of the Jim Pattison Group. Provincial Attorney General Niki Sharma said at a Tuesday news conference that residents of British Columbia, Canada and people around the world are concerned about what is happening with ICE in the U.S. and the deaths of U.S. citizens. “We watch with horror what is unfolding there,” Sharma said. “And I think this calls on business leaders across the province, including across the country, to consider their role in what is unfolding there and to make decisions that will not contribute to some of the outcomes we are seeing in the States.” ICE stands for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the Department of Homeland Security agency responsible for immigration enforcement and customs. Its activities, especially regarding migrant detention centres, are often sharply criticized by human rights organizations for conditions of confinement.
A key issue in this story is the company’s claim it did not know the building’s ultimate use. That raises questions about due diligence in large commercial transactions, especially when the buyer is a government contractor. While the deal may be commercially legitimate on its face, the political and reputational consequences have been significant. The scandal has also highlighted growing pressure on Canadian businesses to consider not only financial but also ethical dimensions of their overseas operations, particularly given sensitive political issues with their closest neighbour. The outcome could set a precedent for how Canadian corporations assess risks when selling assets that could be used in controversial government programs. For now, the Pattison Group is trying to close the deal while balancing commercial interests and mounting public discontent.
