The independent Cook Political Report has changed its forecast for the race in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, moving it from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic.” Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is facing Republican state Sen. John Braun. The decision is part of a broader trend: ratings for 17 other House races have also shifted in Democrats’ favor amid voter dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump, the war with Iran and rising prices.
According to Cook, significant Republican spending has so far failed to substantially change the dynamics of the race. In particular, a political action committee supporting Braun has reserved more than $1.5 million in advertising time. Meanwhile, an Oregon Public Broadcasting poll last month showed Braun with a narrow lead—48% to 47% over Gluesenkamp Perez—within the survey’s margin of error of 4.2 percentage points. Experts note that the district remains highly competitive and has switched from one party to the other for many years.
Republicans must mobilize their supporters and win back moderate conservatives who previously voted for Gluesenkamp Perez. The congresswoman is also facing discontent among some Democratic voters, but analysts believe most Democrats will ultimately support her, recognizing the stakes of the election. At the first debate, Braun urged voters to preserve Republican control of Congress, while Gluesenkamp Perez emphasized her independence from party interests—an important argument in a district Trump has won three times. At the same time, according to the article’s authors, both candidates occasionally misrepresented facts about their opponent and the issues under discussion.
Based on: WA’s 3rd District race shifts toward Democrats in new rating