Japanese media are discussing the consequences that the United States’ coercive policies could have for the world and the economy. Against the backdrop of the conflict with Iran and mounting sanctions pressure, particular attention is being paid to rising fuel prices, the strategic role of Venezuela’s heavy crude oil, and the risk that excessive use of dollar sanctions could accelerate countries’ shift away from the American currency. In this way, the military and energy agenda is becoming part of a broader debate about the limits of Washington’s influence and the price of its decisions. This material is based on publications by Vietnam.vn and Asahi Shimbun (Japan).
Japan Sees Economic Risks in Fuel Prices and Dollar Sanctions
Rising diesel prices in the United States and the expansion of American sanctions against Iran are being viewed by Japanese observers as interconnected signals of instability in the global economy. For a country heavily dependent on energy imports, maritime trade, and the dollar-based financial system, tensions in the oil market and the use of currency settlements as an instrument of pressure could quickly affect transportation, food, manufacturing, and household costs.
According to a report on the situation in the US diesel market, on September 2, the US diesel refining margin reached a historic high of $108.02 per barrel. The record was set amid concerns about a supply shortage, while market anxiety persisted even after official data showed a slight increase in domestic diesel inventories.
Experts at consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates call diesel “a key fuel for road transportation, agriculture, and industrial production.” Its rising cost, they warn, increases transportation expenses and quickly spreads throughout the entire economic chain, ultimately affecting food prices.
For Japan, this is not merely a story about the US market. The country depends on imports of oil, liquefied natural gas, and other energy resources, meaning that supply disruptions abroad, insufficient refining capacity, or interruptions to maritime logistics could drive up fuel prices domestically as well. Higher costs could then affect freight transportation, agriculture, industry, electricity and gas rates, and eventually consumer prices.
This scenario becomes particularly painful when the yen weakens: higher dollar-denominated prices for oil and petroleum products then increase import costs even more when converted into the Japanese currency. A diesel shortage in the United States could intensify international competition for petroleum products, creating additional pressure on Japanese companies’ expenses. This echoes recent experience, when expensive energy already led to higher utility rates, transportation costs, and retail prices.
Against this backdrop, the Japanese press is also focusing on another source of global uncertainty: Washington’s sanctions policy. In an analytical Asahi Shimbun column, the dollar is presented as America’s most important instrument for pressuring its adversaries, but also as a potential source of long-term risks for the global financial system itself.
The publication was prompted by the strengthening of measures against Iran amid a deadlock in military operations and diplomatic efforts. Presenting additional restrictions on August 24, US Treasury Secretary Bessent declared: “There is no one beyond the reach of American sanctions.” Washington is signaling that countries and companies continuing to do business with Iran could be cut off from financial infrastructure based on dollar settlements.
The column’s author notes that the systematic use of the dollar as a sanctions tool intensified sharply after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. The administration of George W. Bush then instructed government agencies to use all available means in the fight against terrorism, and the financial system became one of the key fronts of that policy. The particular strength of the United States lies in its ability to control critical nodes of the global economy: dollar payments, banking operations, and access to the international financial network.
However, according to Asahi Shimbun, this very strength is a “double-edged sword.” The more often the dollar system is used for coercion, the more likely it becomes that participants in global trade will seek ways to reduce their dependence on it. Possible alternatives include settlements in national currencies, regional payment mechanisms, gold, and central bank digital currencies.
For Japan, the issue is especially sensitive. Japanese companies, banks, insurers, shipping operators, and industrial groups are deeply integrated into the dollar system. The expansion of secondary sanctions could force businesses to make a difficult choice: comply with American restrictions or maintain ties with third countries. In Iran’s case, financial pressure is also linked to the risk of instability in the Middle East, a region that remains critically important for Japan’s energy supplies.
As the publication emphasizes, Japan’s concerns do not imply support for Iran or rejection of sanctions as a political instrument. The issue is trust in the dollar and the predictability of the rules governing global trade. If transactions in the American currency are increasingly perceived as politically vulnerable, a gradual shift away from the dollar could become more likely. Such a process would not necessarily be rapid, but it could reshape the financial environment on which Japan’s economy largely depends.
For Tokyo, this creates a dilemma. Japan is interested in preserving American leadership, the security of sea lanes, and the stability of the international order. But as an export-oriented and import-dependent economy, it also needs open markets, reliable logistics, and rules that do not change under the pressure of yet another geopolitical conflict.
The record diesel margin in the United States and the debate over the dollar’s use as a sanctions tool reveal one common problem: geopolitics is having an ever-deeper impact on everyday economic life. For Japan, this underscores the importance of strategic reserves, supplier diversification, resilient maritime logistics, energy conservation, and the development of renewable energy sources. At the same time, the country must recognize that instability in the global financial system and fuel markets can harm not only the adversaries of the United States, but its allies as well.
