American expert Steven Cook argues that the war waged by the US against Iran has demonstrated the limited reach of Washington’s influence in the Middle East and has revived calls to end the American presence in the region. In his view, the military operation “Epic Fury,” launched by President Trump, did not yield any real strategic gains. Despite loud declarations of victory, the actual state of affairs and the terms of the agreement paint a very different picture.
Cook examines in detail the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, which includes talks on the nuclear program and a temporary 60-day exemption from sanctions on Iranian oil exports. At the same time, the future of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain — Iranian officials emphasize that guarantees of freedom of navigation are limited to the temporary agreement, and Tehran may later introduce fees for ship transits. These conditions call into question the very rationale for the war and the achievement of its stated goals.
Cook asks what the real aim of the conflict was and suggests that Americans, their allies, and even the Iranians were better off before the military escalation on February 28. Trump’s failure to achieve tangible results could produce the opposite effect — accelerating the withdrawal of US forces from the region. Reluctance is growing in Congress and among current and future officials to commit vast political, military, and financial resources to maintain a presence in the Middle East.
The author draws a historical parallel with the withdrawal of British forces from the Persian Gulf in the 1970s, stressing that 50 years of American intervention have not produced a Palestinian state, transformed Iraqi society, or democratized the countries of the region. The war with Iran merely added to a series of failures, making the Middle East a politically toxic topic in Washington. The bipartisan consensus is increasingly leaning toward reduced involvement, and shifts in energy markets and the move to clean energy are changing American calculations.
Cook predicts that the American presence will be reduced to a minimum: a naval base in Bahrain, periodic aircraft carrier patrols, and possibly an air wing in Jordan. This would mean the end of the “Carter Doctrine,” which guaranteed protection of oil supplies from the Gulf, and the close of the traditional American era in the Middle East. The absence of a clear international successor will force Washington’s allies to reassess their security, especially given China’s reluctance to inherit an American role after the costly lessons of past interventions. In the expert’s view, Trump made a “strategic mistake,” but now he has an unprecedented opportunity to pull the US out of the region, which would reshape the balance of power and end decades of American hegemony.
Commentary on the story
- What is the “Carter Doctrine” and how is it related to US policy in the Persian Gulf? - The Carter Doctrine, announced in 1980 by US President Jimmy Carter, states that any attempt by an external force to gain control of the Persian Gulf will be viewed as a threat to vital US interests, and Washington will use military force to defend those interests. This doctrine underpins the permanent US military presence in the region, including deployment of the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and operations to ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. It was a reaction to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Iranian revolution, and today it is used to deter Iran.
- Why is the Strait of Hormuz important for the global economy and how could Iran threaten shipping? - The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage in the Persian Gulf through which about 20–25% of the world’s oil shipments (roughly 17–20 million barrels per day) transit. Any blockage or threat to shipping could cause a sharp spike in oil prices and a global economic crisis. Iran could potentially threaten shipping using fast attack boats, naval mines, anti-ship missiles, and drones, as well as by detaining or seizing tankers, as it has done previously. However, Iran generally acts cautiously to avoid provoking a full-scale US military response.
- What role does the US naval base in Bahrain play in the American presence in the region? - The US naval base in Bahrain (Naval Support Activity Bahrain) is the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet and the Combined Maritime Forces. It provides a continuous US Navy presence in the Persian Gulf, enables patrols of the Strait of Hormuz, supports allies (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait), and allows for rapid response to any threats from Iran. The base also serves as a logistics hub for all US operations in the region — from countering piracy to protecting oil shipping routes.
Full version: هل اقتربت نهاية "مبدأ كارتر"؟.. دعوات أمريكية للانسحاب من الشرق الأوسط