Contrary to public statements by the Donald Trump administration, secret intelligence obtained by The New York Times shows that Tehran has regained control of about 90% of its underground missile facilities across the country. Assessments prepared in early April, based on satellite imagery and advanced surveillance technologies, have raised serious alarm among senior officials in Washington, presenting the administration with a strategic dilemma amid a sharp shortage of critical U.S. munitions.
According to the intelligence, roughly 90% of underground storage sites and launch facilities are operating "partially or fully," and Iran has restored operational access to 30 of 33 missile positions overlooking the Strait of Hormuz. About one-fifth of the world’s oil consumption passes through this strait, making these sites a direct threat to tankers and more than 20 U.S. warships in the region. Analysts say such operational recovery alters calculations for maritime and regional security.
The report also notes that Tehran has retained about 70% of its mobile launchers and nearly 70% of its pre-war missile stockpiles. Iranian forces can move missiles on mobile platforms within facilities or fire them from integrated installations. That operational flexibility makes precise targeting difficult and undermines the effectiveness of previous strikes. The assessments cast doubt on the ability of future attacks to inflict lasting damage on these capabilities.
These intelligence findings sharply contrast with public statements by U.S. officials. On March 9, Trump said that Iran’s missiles were "scattered and reduced" and that the country had "nothing left militarily." On April 8, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced that the joint operation with Israel had "destroyed the Iranian army and rendered it combat ineffective for years to come." In response to the NYT report, White House press secretary Olivia Wiles repeated Trump’s assurances of Iran’s "defeat," calling those who speak of a recovery "deluded or propagandists for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps."
The report explains the preservation of a significant portion of Iran’s arsenal as a tactical choice by U.S. forces. The Pentagon preferred to blockade entrances to facilities rather than destroy them from within because of a limited number of bunker-busting bombs and the need to preserve those munitions for other operations in Asia. During the conflict the U.S. used about 1,100 long-range cruise missiles, more than 1,000 Tomahawks, and over 1,300 Patriot interceptors — nearly two years’ worth of production at 2025 rates. Replenishing these stocks will take years, not months, creating difficulties for allies awaiting weapons deliveries for Ukraine.
This does not mean Iran has not suffered losses: air defense systems and strategic facilities were heavily damaged, many senior commanders were killed, and the country’s economy is suffering from military pressure. Still, Tehran’s retention of military capability worries European U.S. allies who purchased billions of dollars in armaments for Ukraine and fear delays due to the need to restock American supplies. Despite this, U.S. military officials continue to reassure the public and allies: General Dan Kane told Congress the U.S. has "enough munitions for current tasks," and Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell emphasized that the military "has everything it needs" to protect U.S. interests and people.
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What is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and what role does it play in Iran’s military and political system? — The IRGC is an elite military-political formation in Iran, separate from the regular army and directly subordinate to the Supreme Leader. It controls missile forces, the nuclear program, has extensive economic interests, and is involved in suppressing domestic protests. In the political system, the IRGC acts as an instrument of influence, supporting conservative forces and ensuring regime security.
Why does Iran rely on underground missile bases and mobile launchers — what is their strategic advantage? — Underground bases protect missiles from airstrikes and satellite reconnaissance, allowing for a retaliatory strike even after a powerful attack. Mobile launchers make missiles less vulnerable because they are difficult to detect and destroy before launch. Together, they create a "missile shield" that deters strikes by the U.S. and Israel, giving Iran the ability for asymmetric retaliation.
What is the significance of the Strait of Hormuz for Iran and why is placing missiles along it considered a direct challenge to the global economy? — The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic channel through which about 20–25% of global oil passes. Control over this route gives Iran the ability to cut off shipments in a conflict, which would cause a sharp rise in oil prices and a global economic shock. Deploying missiles along the strait allows Iran to threaten shipping, making this not just a military but a geopolitical pressure tactic against the West and Saudi Arabia.
Full version: تقييمات سرية تعارض رواية ترمب.. إيران تستعيد 90% من منشآتها الصاروخية