Analysts predict that the average retail price of gasoline in the United States will on Monday exceed the psychologically important threshold of $3 per gallon for the first time in more than three months. This spike is being directly linked to the war against Iran, one of the world's largest oil suppliers, which has destabilized global crude flows. This development creates a serious political headache for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party ahead of the midterm Congressional elections in November, as inflation and the cost of living remain top voter concerns.
According to GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan, the last time gas prices were above $3 was in November 2025, after which they fell to $2.85 in February. The expert explained that oil responds first to strikes on Iran, and gasoline prices follow with some delay. Iran, a key player in the oil market, has declared the Strait of Hormuz unsafe for transit, which has already led to damage to several tankers and to major shipping companies deciding to avoid this critically important route.
The immediate cause of the rise was a sharp jump in global oil prices of roughly 13%, reaching a several-month high. Brent crude futures rose to $82.37 per barrel, the highest level since January 2025. This surge occurred amid an escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel and after a US and Israeli strike on Iran on Saturday that resulted in the death of the country's Supreme Leader.
Experts say the US administration appears willing, for now, to tolerate the political risks associated with higher oil prices in pursuit of its foreign policy objectives. Bob McNally, head of consulting group Rapidan Energy, noted that the White House will likely focus on minimizing the time during which Iran can control the flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz. The possibility of tapping the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to contain further price increases is also not ruled out.
It is worth noting that pressure on gasoline prices had begun to build even before the latest events. Refineries have started switching to the more expensive summer-grade fuel in accordance with environmental regulations. In addition, the US is approaching the peak of the summer driving season, when gasoline demand is at its highest. Analysts expected that, in stable conditions, prices would reach $3.10–$3.25, but the current crisis will significantly accelerate that process.
Although large commercial gasoline inventories in the US may somewhat soften the blow, the overall rise in oil prices threatens broader inflation. The increase in fuel costs, most noticeable to consumers, could complicate the Federal Reserve’s plans to cut interest rates. Moreover, an expansion of the conflict could put negative pressure on the stock market (Wall Street), undermining one of the key points in Trump’s pre-election rhetoric about economic success.
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What role does the Strait of Hormuz play in global oil supplies and why is its blockage so critical? - The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow sea passage between the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf. About 20–30% of global seaborne oil shipments pass through it, including exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait and Iran. Its blockage is critical because it is the main route for oil bound for Asia, Europe and other regions. Closing the strait would lead to a sharp jump in global oil prices, fuel shortages and could trigger a global economic crisis due to many countries’ dependence on Middle Eastern oil.
Who is the Supreme Leader of Iran and how does his real power compare to that of the president? - The Supreme Leader of Iran is the highest political and religious authority in the country, holding the position for life. He is appointed by the Assembly of Experts and, according to Iran’s constitution, has the final authority over all branches of government, the armed forces, foreign policy and the judiciary. By contrast, the president of Iran is the head of the executive branch, elected in elections and responsible for day-to-day government management, but his decisions and policies must align with the directives and approval of the Supreme Leader. Thus, the Supreme Leader wields significantly more real power than the president.
What is “summer-grade fuel” in the US and how does it differ from regular fuel besides price? - “Summer-grade fuel” in the US is a special type of gasoline sold in the warm months (usually June through September) to meet Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standards. The main difference from “winter” fuel is lower Reid vapor pressure (evaporability), which reduces harmful evaporative emissions in hot weather and helps fight smog. This makes it more environmentally friendly but also more expensive to produce than winter blends, which have higher volatility to improve cold-weather engine starts.
Full version: تحذير من ارتفاع سعر البنزين بأمريكا إثر الحرب على إيران