According to the latest assessments by U.S. intelligence, Iran’s leadership remains largely cohesive and is not facing an imminent collapse despite nearly two weeks of large-scale American and Israeli strikes. Sources familiar with the reports say numerous intelligence briefings consistently indicate the regime is not in danger and retains control over public sentiment inside the country. These conclusions, including a recent report prepared in the past several days, reflect a steady assessment that a near-term collapse of Iranian authorities is not expected.
The strikes carried out by the U.S. and Israel were extensive and struck air-defence systems, nuclear sites and Iran’s senior leadership, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February, as well as dozens of senior officials. However, intelligence summaries note that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the interim leaders who assumed control after Khamenei’s death still hold control over the country. The ability of Iranian institutions to mobilize was demonstrated by the appointment of a new supreme leader — Mojtaba, Khamenei’s son — which was carried out by the Assembly of Experts in accordance with constitutional procedures.
At the same time, the strategic objectives of Washington and Tel Aviv remain not fully clear, complicating efforts to find a political exit from the conflict. Although U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at a near end to the largest military operation since 2003, senior American officials later said that toppling Iran’s leadership is not a required objective. An Israeli official in private conversations acknowledged that one cannot say with certainty that the war will bring down the rule of the religious elite, highlighting the fluidity of the situation on the ground.
One Reuters source noted that overthrowing the government would likely require a ground operation that would allow Iranians to safely take to the streets in protest. The Trump administration did not rule out sending U.S. troops into Iran as a possible option. However, mounting such a large-scale ground invasion remains extremely difficult politically and militarily, entailing huge risks and unpredictable consequences for the region as a whole.
Against the backdrop of the conflict, Iranian Kurdish groups have become more active and are reported to have been consulting with the U.S. about possible attacks on Iranian security forces from Iraqi territory. The leader of one such group said that “tens of thousands of young people” were ready to take up arms against the government with American support. Nevertheless, U.S. intelligence reports express skepticism about the actual combat capabilities of these formations, noting their lack of firepower and numbers. Trump himself said he ruled out allowing Iranian Kurdish groups to enter Iran, leaving their role in the conflict uncertain.
News commentary
What role does the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps play in Iran’s political system beyond military functions? - The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is one of Iran’s most influential institutions, performing many non-military functions. It controls a significant portion of the economy through its foundations and companies, has its own intelligence and security forces, influences domestic politics through ties with conservative politicians, and plays a key role in foreign policy, especially in supporting regional allies. The IRGC operates as a “state within a state,” defending the ideological foundations of the Islamic Republic and ensuring the regime’s loyalty.
How does the process of selecting the Supreme Leader in the Assembly of Experts work and how independent is it? - The Assembly of Experts, made up of 88 Islamic clerics elected for eight-year terms, is formally responsible for appointing, supervising and potentially dismissing the Supreme Leader. In practice the process is heavily constrained. All candidates for the Assembly of Experts are pre-screened by the Guardian Council, which weeds out disloyal or insufficiently religious contenders. When selecting the Leader, members of the assembly vote by secret ballot, but their choice is limited to a narrow circle of senior religious authorities approved by the existing establishment. Thus, while the procedure has formal democratic elements, the real independence of the Assembly of Experts is greatly limited by the candidate-filtering system and the political context.
What is the historical context and current aims of Iranian Kurdish armed groups operating from Iraqi territory? - Kurdish armed groups such as the PDKI and Komala trace their history to the mid-20th century, when the Kurdish national movement in Iran strengthened after World War II. Their original goal was autonomy or independence for Iranian Kurds. After the 1979 Islamic Revolution the conflict intensified, and many groups were pushed into Iraq. Today, operating from Iraqi Kurdistan, these groups pursue mixed aims: some fight for cultural and political rights for Kurds within Iran, others call for the overthrow of the theocratic regime. Their activity often increases during periods of internal instability in Iran and depends on complex relations with regional powers and Iraqi Kurdish parties.
Full version: رويترز: المخابرات الأمريكية تستبعد انهيار النظام الإيراني