Tensions between the United States and Iran have sharply flared up again in the area of the Strait of Hormuz after a memorandum of understanding brokered by Qatar and Pakistan quickly collapsed. While the agreement had temporarily halted hostilities and opened the way for political talks, a dispute over control of shipping through the strait has led to a new exchange of strikes. The escalation was felt immediately in the number of vessels passing through and the volume of oil being transported, heightening fears that the crisis could widen.
According to data from Al Jazeera’s analytical unit, based on information from the Kepler platform tracking maritime shipping, on July 7 Iran attacked three commercial vessels in the strait. In response, Washington carried out large-scale airstrikes on “hundreds of targets on Iranian territory,” including air-defense systems, coastal radars, rocket and drone stockpiles, as well as fast boats that, according to U.S. Central Command, were used to threaten commercial shipping. At the same time, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it carried out strikes on positions of U.S. forces in the region.
Statistics show a sharp drop in traffic: the average number of ships transiting the strait fell by about 55% after the latest stage of escalation began. While between June 15 and July 7, 751 vessels were recorded (an average of 33 per day), from July 8 to July 13 only 90 ships passed through the strait—around 15 per day. The figures make clear how directly security threats affect one of the world’s most strategically important sea routes for trade.
The disruption also hit an alternative route that Oman offered to facilitate passage during periods of heightened tension. Previously, it accounted for about 22% of all traffic, but as of July 8 only one vessel used the route. Such numbers suggest that concerns spread even to routes that were considered less vulnerable.
The crisis also struck oil trade: the volume of crude oil transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell by 58% compared with the previous period. Average daily exports dropped from roughly 10 million barrels to nearly 4 million. In total, since July 8 the strait has been crossed by about 26 million barrels, of which 42% were shipped from Iranian ports—despite the resumption of a maritime blockade and tightening restrictions on Iranian exports. Oil prices jumped from $72 to $87 per barrel amid fears of supply disruptions, while no diplomatic breakthrough is yet in sight that could restore the memorandum and guarantee stable shipping.
Comments on the news
- Why did Qatar and Pakistan act as intermediaries between the US and Iran? — Qatar traditionally maintains neutral relations with both sides, serving as a diplomatic bridge, and its close ties with the United States (the El Udeid military base) and with Iran (joint gas projects) make it a convenient mediator. Pakistan, in turn, has longstanding cultural and economic ties with Iran and is also seeking to strengthen its influence in the region—especially amid rivalry with Saudi Arabia and India—while maintaining working relations with the United States, which enables it to act as a neutral negotiating party.
- What is the alternative route through Oman and why is it considered less vulnerable than the Strait of Hormuz? — The alternative route through Oman includes transporting oil overland from the Gulf of Oman to the coast of the Arabian Sea, or using Omani ports such as Duqm to transship cargoes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. This route is considered less vulnerable because it does not pass through a narrow strait that Iran can easily block and is under the control of more stable states, reducing risks of military conflicts or terrorist attacks.
- What role does the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC/KСИР) play in Iran’s political and military system? — The IRGC is a key military and political force in Iran that combines functions of a regular army, intelligence, and economic management. It reports directly to Iran’s Supreme Leader (rahbar) and oversees elite units such as “Quds” (external operations), as well as a significant portion of the Iranian economy, including the oil and construction sectors. Politically, the IRGC exerts enormous influence over domestic decisions, participating in suppressing protests and shaping foreign policy, especially toward Middle Eastern countries (Syria, Yemen, Lebanon).
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