American President Donald Trump, analysts say, is showing a lack of a clear strategy in his confrontation with Iran. Experts note that Trump, extremely self-assured, believes himself capable of managing any country, but does not fully grasp the possible consequences of escalation. His policy, combining identification with Israel and imperial ambitions to change regimes along the lines of the Venezuela model, faces serious difficulties in the case of Iran.
The United States and Israel have found themselves largely isolated, as many countries, including Gulf states, are not interested in continued hostilities because of their severe consequences for the entire region. Political analyst Hasan Munaimne emphasizes that toppling the Iranian regime currently looks unrealistic. He does not rule out, however, the use of tactical nuclear strikes if the regime were on the brink of collapse, which creates unpredictability given the tacit watchfulness of China and Russia.
For Israel, the conflict took an unexpected turn due to the large-scale involvement of the Lebanese group Hezbollah. Israel affairs expert Adel Shadid points out that the strikes were more powerful than expected, and Israeli media imposed strict censorship, amplifying the element of surprise. The state faced a crisis because it can no longer guarantee the safety of settlers in the north, being forced to evacuate them after earlier assurances.
The conflict is escalating: strikes on oil storage facilities in Tehran and a retaliatory attack on a refinery in Haifa by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are taking the confrontation to a new level. Shadid notes that the equation has changed to “the security of northern settlements in exchange for the security of Tehran.” Hezbollah has created a parallel operational headquarters, and an expansion of clashes is expected, even if they do not turn into a full-scale war.
Editor-in-chief of the Iranian newspaper al-Wafaq, Mukhtar Hadad, says the Revolutionary Guards have prepared scenarios for countermeasures whose consequences could take on a global, not only regional, character. Iranians, he says, “will not surrender and will not allow Israel to decide the fate of their political system.” Further escalation, including strikes on Israeli energy and infrastructure facilities, is likely if Tel Aviv continues attacks that affect Iran’s vital spheres. Crisis management depends on dangerous choices that Trump and Israel may make, while the international community is slow to take a clear position.
Comments on the news
- What role does the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps play in Iran’s domestic and foreign policy, besides its military functions? - The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is a key politico-economic institution in Iran. In addition to military and intelligence functions, it controls significant sectors of the economy (oil and gas, construction, telecommunications), provides internal security and ideological stability for the regime, and directs foreign policy operations through support for allies and proxy groups in the region (for example, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen).
- What is the newspaper "al-Wafaq" and what is its position in Iran’s media landscape? - Al-Wafaq is an Arabic-language newspaper published in Iran and aimed at the Arabic-speaking audience inside the country and abroad. It usually reflects the official position of the Iranian leadership or conservative circles, serving as an instrument of soft power to promote Iranian foreign policy and ideology in the Arabic-speaking world. In Iran’s media landscape it occupies the niche of a pro-government foreign-language publication.
- What is meant by “regime change along the lines of the Venezuela model” in the context of US policy? - This refers to a US strategy aimed at forcing the removal of unfriendly governments through a set of measures short of direct military invasion, as in the case of Venezuela. Such a policy includes harsh economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, support for opposition forces within the country, and international pressure to delegitimize the regime. In the Iranian context, it expresses the fear that the US might apply a similar approach to weaken or replace the theocratic regime in Tehran.
Full version: محللون: أمريكا وإسرائيل تواجهان معضلة قد تدفع ترمب لخيار صعب