Syria and the Middle East are undergoing sweeping changes: Iran and Hezbollah are losing influence, while the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has given Turkey an opportunity to fill part of the resulting regional vacuum. Israel sees Ankara’s growing strength as an increasing strategic threat. This creates a risk of confrontation between two important US allies as direct American involvement in the region declines.
Tensions escalated sharply after Israel struck the Abu al-Duhur air base in Syria on August 18. Israel suspected that a visit by a Turkish military delegation to the base could precede the permanent deployment there of Turkish troops, air-defense radars, and drones. In Israel’s view, such infrastructure could limit its ability to strike Iran. Turkey called the attack illegal and accused Israel of violating Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The article’s author believes the strike was not a response to an imminent military threat but an attempt to deter the expansion of Turkish influence in advance. More than 20,000 Turkish troops are stationed in Syria, while Ankara and Tel Aviv are competing for influence over the region’s future following the weakening of Iran and Hezbollah. Israeli experts are trying to convince Washington that tensions with Turkey have already gone beyond political rhetoric and, if left unchecked, could lead to an unwanted military conflict.
At the same time, Turkey is gaining increasing weight in the eyes of US President Donald Trump, who has praised President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s strength and the country’s regional influence. The US ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria, Tom Barrack, said that Israel was “provoking the Turks” and that the strike on the Syrian base was an unnecessary escalation. According to the article, Ankara’s ambitions extend beyond Syria: Turkey is seeking to strengthen its position in Gaza and Lebanon, declaring its support for the reconstruction of Syria, Hamas, and the Lebanese state.
Israel fears the formation of what is known as a “Sunni ring of fire”—a Turkey-led alliance of Arab and Muslim countries that could surround Israel and deepen its regional isolation. Despite warnings from Israeli officials, an open war between Ankara and Tel Aviv does not currently appear to be the most likely scenario. However, Syria, Gaza, and Lebanon could become permanent flashpoints. To prevent escalation, Washington has been urged to establish a mechanism for preventing accidental clashes, including restoring the backchannel between Turkey and Israel through Azerbaijan.
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How is Turkey’s military presence in Syria structured, and which areas of the country are effectively under Ankara’s influence? — Turkey maintains its military presence mainly in northern Syria, relying on its own forces, observation posts, and allied Syrian armed groups. Its influence is most visible in the areas of Afrin, Jarabulus, al-Bab, and Tal Abyad, as well as in parts of the northwestern province of Idlib. Ankara controls security, border crossings, and military infrastructure, but these territories are not officially part of Turkey and legally remain Syrian.
Why is the Abu al-Duhur air base strategically important for controlling Syrian airspace and possible operations against Iran? — The air base is located in Idlib province, near important routes between northern and central Syria. In theory, it could be used to deploy aircraft, intelligence-gathering equipment, and air-defense systems, expanding control over the airspace. However, its importance for operations against Iran should not be overstated: the base is far from major Iranian facilities, and any actual operations would depend on the condition of the infrastructure, political agreements, air-defense capabilities, and access to air corridors. There is insufficient evidence to claim that it is already being used to prepare for such operations.
What role do Syrian Kurdish formations and the external forces supporting them play in the Syrian-Israeli rivalry? — Kurdish formations, primarily the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), control a significant part of northeastern Syria and rely mainly on US support. Their principal task is to oppose the terrorist group Islamic State and hold their territory, rather than directly participate in the Syrian-Israeli confrontation. Israel may view them as an indirect factor limiting the influence of Damascus, Iran, and forces affiliated with it, but there is no open strategic alliance between Israel and the SDF. Turkey opposes the leading role of Kurdish formations, while the United States seeks to preserve its partnership with them, making the issue part of a broader regional rivalry.
Full version: The Rivalry Between Two Allies in Syria: How Does America View Tensions Between Turkey and Israel?