A photo published by Donald Trump showing warships, among which a vessel flying an Iranian flag was noticed, accompanied by the caption "the calm before the storm," has sparked a new wave of speculation about a possible escalation from Washington. The post appeared immediately after the president's return from China, where, according to U.S. media, no significant progress was made on the Iran issue.
Trump said that PRC Chairman Xi Jinping agrees on the need to force Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz, but Beijing showed no willingness to intervene in this conflict. The president himself hardened his rhetoric, warning that he did not know whether an agreement would be reached soon, and threatened: "Iran better make a deal, or it will face very tough times."
Disagreements are growing within the administration: according to CNN, the Pentagon and some officials insist on targeted military strikes to increase pressure on Tehran, while others prefer a diplomatic route. Analysts note that the president is constrained by strategic, legal and campaign-related factors, as well as a falling approval rating and a weak economy.
Conflict expert Mohammed al-Sharkawi assesses the likelihood of a return to large-scale hostilities as low, but does not rule out "very limited skirmishes." In his view, Trump is now "less bold" than in March and leans toward a diplomatic solution by 70%. Former Deputy Defense Minister Sergio de la Peña considers the president's threats a tactical maneuver to show that "all options are on the table."
Attempts to involve China in pressuring Iran, according to al-Sharkawi, have "lost substance" and led to a strategic vacuum. He proposes more practical mediation, possibly with Pakistan's participation. The prime minister of that country, Shahbaz Sharif, expressed optimism about a second round of direct talks between Washington and Tehran, emphasizing that "peace is not given easily; it requires patience and wisdom."
Critics call Trump's approach "coercive diplomacy," built on threats and insults. Dennis Ross warns that "a lack of strategic patience and contradictions in the president's statements undermine any message." Former negotiators note that hard pressure may only strengthen the positions of Iran's elites, who see Trump's wavering as a sign of desperation and are prepared to outlast his presidential term.
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Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important for Iran and the global economy? - The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic maritime corridor through which about 20–25% of the world's oil trade passes, making it key for global energy markets. For Iran, control over the strait is a tool of geopolitical influence and economic security, as the country exports its oil through it. Any threat to block the strait could sharply raise global energy prices and trigger economic crises, especially in importing countries such as China, India and European states.
Which internal political groups in Iran could benefit from increased U.S. pressure? - Internal political groups that could benefit from tougher U.S. pressure include conservative supporters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and ultra-conservative factions (the "principlists"). They often use external threats and sanctions to justify strict domestic control, suppress opposition and strengthen the role of the military‑industrial complex. In addition, moderate reformists may lose influence, as their position favoring negotiations and openness to the world would be undermined.
What is Pakistan's role in Iran‑U.S. negotiations? - Pakistan acts as a mediator and a link between Iran and the U.S., especially through unofficial communication channels. Geopolitically, Pakistan—bordering Iran and having close ties with Saudi Arabia and China—seeks to maintain balance: it is interested in reducing tensions to avoid regional destabilization and to secure the safety of its energy supplies and investments, in particular the Gwadar port project associated with China's Belt and Road Initiative.
Full version: "هدوء ما قبل العاصفة".. هل قرر ترمب أخيرا استئناف الحرب على إيران؟