U.S. President Donald Trump sharply rejected Iran's response to an American proposal to end the war, calling it "absolutely unacceptable." In a post on the social network Truth Social, he accused Tehran of prolonging negotiations for years and manipulating the international community for 47 years. This hardline reaction increased tensions and triggered a rise in oil prices at market open, although analysts say it does not completely close the door to diplomacy but significantly raises the likelihood of a military scenario.
No official comment came from Tehran, but sources close to the Iranian leadership took a defiant stance. As the semi-official Tasnim agency reported, one representative said: "When Trump expresses dissatisfaction, it often means the plan is actually good." Iranian television described the American initiative as "capitulation to Trump's demands," noting that Iran's response contains clear red lines and principled conditions.
According to Tasnim, the key points of Iran's counterproposal include an immediate ceasefire on all fronts, guarantees of non-aggression toward Iran in the future, and the complete lifting of U.S. sanctions, including restrictions on oil exports, within 30 days. In addition, Tehran demanded the lifting of the naval blockade immediately after signing a preliminary agreement, the unfreezing of Iranian assets, and even the transfer of control over the Strait of Hormuz to Iran in exchange for certain U.S. commitments. For Washington, these demands are unacceptable concessions, while in Tehran they are viewed as a necessary condition for restoring sovereignty.
American experts consider two main scenarios after Trump's rejection. The first is Operation "Freedom Plus," which would entail prolonged maritime confrontation, a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and maintenance of a blockade on Iranian ports. This option is supported by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham. The second scenario is military escalation with strikes on Iranian infrastructure, which, according to analyst Michael Mallroy, would prompt retaliatory attacks on oil facilities in neighboring countries and destabilize global energy markets. Mallroy warns that large-scale bombings could force other states to intervene to restore shipping.
At the regional level, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that "the war is not over yet," and further work is needed to remove enriched uranium, dismantle centrifuges, and neutralize Iran's proxy forces. In Tehran, in turn, they do not rule out military conflict, believing that the price of resistance is lower than the price of capitulation. Iran's Supreme Leader held a meeting with the command of the Khatam al-Anbiya Corps, ordering the continuation of military operations and a tough stance against opponents. These statements only increase the risk of renewed or expanded direct clashes.
Despite the tough rhetoric, the possibility of returning to talks remains, especially in light of Trump's upcoming visit to China. U.S. officials do not rule out that Beijing could act as a mediator, enhancing its international standing if it takes up mediation before the start of military escalation. However, it is reported that Washington is seeking an agreement that would further restrict Iran's rights compared with the 2015 nuclear deal. The final scenario remains uncertain: from maintaining "fragile calm" and resuming dialogue to full-scale military confrontation, at least until the conclusion of the American leader's visit to the PRC.
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What is the Strait of Hormuz and why is control over it important for Iran and the global economy? — The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime passage between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean. About 20–30% of the world's oil trade (roughly 17 million barrels per day) passes through it. For Iran, control of the strait is a key lever of influence: in the event of conflict, Tehran could close the passage, triggering a sharp spike in energy prices and a global economic crisis. It is also a strategic asset for deterring military pressure from the United States and its allies.
Who are Iran's "proxy forces" mentioned in Netanyahu's statement, and how do they affect regional security? — Iran's "proxy forces" are armed groups operating in various Middle Eastern countries that are funded, trained, or armed by Tehran. They include Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, various Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria (for example, Kata'ib Hezbollah), as well as groups in the Gaza Strip (such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad). They undermine regional stability by attacking Israel, U.S. allies (for example, Saudi Arabia or the UAE), and disrupting maritime shipping, which could escalate into full-scale conflict.
What is the Khatam al-Anbiya Corps and why is its meeting with Iran's Supreme Leader important for assessing military risks? — Khatam al-Anbiya (also known as the Rocket Corps or the Corps for Demining and Engineering Defense) is a key unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responsible for the development and deployment of ballistic missiles, drones, and air defense systems. A meeting of its command with Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei signals possible preparation for military operations or an increase in combat readiness. Such meetings are usually held before major strikes (for example, against Israel in 2024) or in response to threats, so they serve as an indicator of rising tension and the risk of open confrontation.
Full version: ما السيناريوهات المتوقعة بعد رفض ترمب للرد الإيراني؟