American President Donald Trump is likely to declare victory in a war with Iran regardless of the actual outcome, but his main problem is convincing the public of the political justification for that conflict. His rhetoric swings from claims that "victory was achieved on the first day" to forecasts that fighting could drag on for "weeks or months." Despite official optimism, Americans are increasingly skeptical and worried about how the war will affect their daily lives.
The difficulty is compounded by the fact that the administration's objectives have changed several times since the start of the conflict — this undermines any attempt to construct a coherent narrative of success. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan show that every president has tried to present military campaigns as progress despite widespread disappointment. But with Iran, that kind of "packaging" is especially difficult because initial promises diverged from reality, and now voters find it harder to trust the government's version of events.
The demand for "unconditional surrender" and regime change in Tehran lends a particular absurdity to the situation — conditions that, without a full-scale invasion and colossal destruction like in World War II, seem unrealistic. The journalist mocks the image of marines planting the US flag over the Iranian parliament and points to a glaring contradiction: officials speak of the collapse of the Iranian government one moment and of continued negotiations the next. The sarcastic question "If all this is true, then who are we negotiating with?" becomes central.
A settlement plan proposed by Axios includes a temporary freeze of the nuclear program, partial sanctions relief, the unblocking of Iranian assets, and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. These terms sharply contrast with earlier statements that Iran’s nuclear program had been "completely destroyed" and that regime change was necessary. If such an agreement is implemented, Republicans will face a serious credibility crisis among voters who were previously promised a much tougher approach.
As a result, the war risks becoming a heavy political burden for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections, especially against a backdrop of economic dissatisfaction and fatigue with protracted conflicts. Even redistricting may not save them if voters decide the sacrifices of war were not justified and the promises not kept. The Republican Party finds itself trapped between loyalty to Trump and growing public irritation, making an effort to present the war as a strategic success almost impossible.
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What is the Strait of Hormuz and why is its blockage or opening so important for the global economy? - The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow sea passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman through which about 20% of the world’s oil trade passes. Its closure (for example, by Iran in response to sanctions) could trigger a sharp spike in oil prices and a global energy crisis, since alternative routes (such as overland pipelines) have limited capacity.
What sanctions are currently in place against Iran and how could their partial lifting affect the country’s economy? - The main sanctions are the tough US measures introduced in 2018 (the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal), which restrict Iranian oil exports, banking operations, and access to the international financial system. Partial lifting of sanctions (for example, as part of new nuclear talks) would allow Iran to increase oil exports, access frozen assets abroad, and attract foreign investment, which would reduce inflation and unemployment.
Who actually makes decisions in Iran — the president or the supreme leader — and how does this affect the possibility of negotiations with the US? - Real power is concentrated with the Supreme Leader (currently Ayatollah Ali Khamenei), who controls the military, the nuclear program, intelligence, and foreign policy. The president (currently Ebrahim Raisi) is responsible for the economy and domestic affairs, but his powers are limited. This means any agreements with the US (for example, on the nuclear deal) must be approved by Khamenei, making negotiations more complex and unpredictable, as the leader often adheres to a hardline anti-American stance.
Full version: هيل: ترمب قد يعلن الانتصار على إيران لكنه أمام معضلة