American President Donald Trump, according to analysts, has found himself in a deep political dead end because of the war with Iran. His strategy looks highly contradictory: on the one hand he speaks of “fruitful” talks with Tehran, and on the other — continues to build up military presence in the region, preparing for possible escalation on land. This gap between rhetoric and actual military preparations calls Washington’s true goals into question since the start of the conflict.
Experts believe that such uncertainty is a deliberate tactic. Trump, according to Professor of Conflict Resolution Muhammad ash-Sharqawi, prefers to keep even his closest allies in the dark in order to disorient the opponent and preserve all courses of action. He may suddenly shift from negotiations to a large-scale military operation or, conversely, after an escalation offer an unexpected political solution. Some analysts compare this approach to an Israeli strategy that relies on a demonstration of force to achieve objectives.
Domestic political calculations in the U.S. and Israel play a key role in prolonging the conflict. Trump needs a political victory that would justify a war that lacks strong domestic support. Therefore he may seek to prolong it in the hope that Iranian society will rise against its government. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also interested in continuing hostilities to improve his chances in upcoming elections, according to polls that give him little hope of forming a new government.
The economic factor exerts significant pressure on the course of the war. The conflict, according to ash-Sharqawi, was originally linked to the desire to control Iranian oil. Rising global energy prices increase pressure on the Trump administration. The threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz has added an economic dimension to the conflict, prompting the American president to shift some responsibility onto his ministers and envoys, such as Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Additional pressure also comes from major industrial countries that bear part of the financial burden of the war.
The main obstacles to real negotiations are the pride and ambitions of all parties — Trump, Netanyahu, and the Iranian leadership — who are not ready to make serious concessions. Iran seeks not only to end the war and guarantee it will not recur, but also to inflict significant political damage on the Republican Party in order to stop the phenomenon of “Trumpism.” Experts predict the confrontation will continue for several more weeks, while the U.S. and Israel are betting either on an internal coup in Iran or on prolonging the war as a means of pressure on the regime.
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What exactly is the economic and strategic role of the Strait of Hormuz for Iran and the global economy, beyond the mentioned threat of its closure? - The Strait of Hormuz is a critically important narrow passage through which about 30% of the world’s seaborne oil shipments and a significant volume of liquefied natural gas transit. For Iran, it is the main route for oil exports and a key element of the national economy. Strategically, control over the strait gives Iran a powerful lever over global energy markets and serves as an instrument of deterrence in regional and international politics, allowing Tehran to project power and bargain.
What is meant by the “phenomenon of Trumpism” in the context of Iranian foreign policy, and why does Iran see it as a threat that must be stopped? - In the Iranian context, the “phenomenon of Trumpism” refers to a foreign-policy doctrine associated with the administration of Donald Trump, characterized by unilateral actions, withdrawal from multilateral agreements (such as the JCPOA — the 2015 nuclear deal), a “maximum pressure” policy through harsh sanctions, and open hostility toward the Iranian government. Iran views this model as a threat because it aims to economically strangle the country, destabilize the regime and undermine its regional influence, creating a precedent for future U.S. policy.
How realistic are U.S. and Israeli hopes for an internal coup or mass protests in Iran, given recent history and the structure of the Iranian state? - These hopes are considered unlikely in the short and medium term. The Iranian state possesses powerful security and ideological institutions (the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Basij, the judiciary) that effectively suppress dissent. Despite periodic waves of protests (for example in 2019 and 2022), they have not developed into a nationwide movement capable of toppling the regime. Power is deeply rooted in revolutionary structures, and external pressure often consolidates patriotic sentiments, strengthening the state’s legitimacy in the eyes of part of the population.
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