CNN analysts cast doubt on recent US President Donald Trump's claim of victory in the conflict with Iran, calling it premature and detached from reality. Experts say the situation in the region is becoming increasingly complex and gradually slipping out of control, making any triumphant rhetoric politically convenient but objectively untenable. Any comprehensive look at events shows that the US is still far from a real victory.
One key reason is the very nature of a multifaceted conflict in which regional and international interests are intertwined, precluding a quick and decisive resolution. The situation is made especially acute by Iran's decision to close the Strait of Hormuz — a vital maritime route for global oil trade. This led to a sharp rise in world oil and fuel prices, as well as increased insurance costs for ships, demonstrating how a military conflict hits the global economy directly.
Many of Iran's challenges are primarily political rather than military, making them impossible to resolve by force alone. Although joint US-Israeli airstrikes have weakened Tehran's military capabilities, including missile and drone programs, these tactical successes are not equivalent to a complete strategic victory or a political settlement. Moreover, Iranian state institutions continue to function, and a change in leadership could even harden positions rather than topple the regime.
Divergences in approach among allies also complicate the situation: while Israel views security as a long-term battle, for Trump, with elections approaching, quick political dividends are important. The nuclear issue also remains relevant, since Iran may still possess a stockpile of highly enriched uranium, leaving it the theoretical possibility of restarting a program. Washington's expectations of mass popular protests inside Iran have also not materialized.
The consequences of the conflict are beginning to be felt inside the United States — from higher gasoline prices to potential spikes in violence driven by intercommunal tensions. All this makes it difficult for the Trump administration to present the war as an unambiguous success. Thus, the conflict with Iran is increasingly turning from a demonstration of military superiority into a prolonged test of endurance, where declaring victory is still very premature.
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What specific role does the Strait of Hormuz play in Iran's economy and why is its closure such a powerful threat beyond impacting global oil prices? - The Strait of Hormuz is a vital maritime corridor for exporting Iranian oil and petroleum products, which account for a significant portion of state revenue. Its closure would paralyze Iran's primary export, lead to a sharp drop in foreign-currency inflows, and undermine the country's ability to import goods. Beyond affecting global prices, it is also a strategic lever allowing Iran to pressure countries dependent on Gulf oil and to demonstrate its ability to disrupt global energy flows, strengthening its bargaining position in regional and international affairs.
Which state institutions in Iran ensure the stability of the political regime, and what roles do, for example, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) play compared to elected bodies? - The regime's stability is provided by a network of interconnected institutions. Key among them are: the Supreme Leader (rahbar) as the highest authority; the Guardian Council, which approves candidates and laws; the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — an elite armed force with vast economic and intelligence influence; the Expediency Discernment Council, which resolves disputes; and the Basij — a popular militia. Elected bodies (president, parliament) handle day-to-day affairs, but their power is constrained by these unelected institutions. The IRGC plays a unique role: it is simultaneously an army, intelligence service, large economic conglomerate, and ideological guardian of the revolution, directly subordinate to the Supreme Leader and often operating parallel to the civilian government.
Why, despite external pressure and economic difficulties, have expectations of mass popular protests in Iran not been fulfilled, and what internal political dynamics restrain such uprisings? - Expectations of sustained mass protests have not been fulfilled due to a combination of factors: an effective security apparatus (IRGC, Basij, police) that quickly suppresses pockets of unrest; a significant portion of the population, especially in rural areas and smaller towns, remains loyal to the system or apathetic; economic hardship forces people to focus on survival rather than politics; the regime uses patriotic and religious narratives to consolidate support, especially in the face of external threats; and the absence of a unified national opposition organization or a recognized leader capable of uniting disparate discontented groups. The political dynamic is such that the regime permits limited expressions of discontent through official channels but harshly represses any challenges to its legitimacy or calls for systemic change.
Full version: محلل أمريكي: لهذه الأسباب لم ينتصر ترمب في حرب إيران