The Trump administration found itself confused by uncertainty over who is making key decisions in Iran. U.S. intelligence indicates that the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, despite suffering serious wounds in the attack that killed his father in February 2026, is involved in crafting military and negotiation strategies. However, his isolation and refusal to use electronic devices, communicating only through personal meetings or handwritten notes, make his role unclear to outside observers.
In practice, the everyday affairs of the Iranian regime are run by senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. This creates a parallel and complex leadership structure in which real power may be concentrated elsewhere. One source noted that there is no conclusive evidence that Khamenei consistently issues real orders, but that cannot be disproved either. Such ambiguity has become a serious challenge for the Trump administration in determining who is authorized to negotiate an end to the conflict.
Economically, Iran, according to CIA estimates, may hold out another four months under the U.S. naval blockade without its economy collapsing completely. At the same time, officials acknowledge that the blockade inflicts “real and cumulative damage,” cutting off trade and depriving the country of revenue. Iran’s armed forces are also weakening, losing maritime capabilities. The White House emphasizes that “as the U.S. grows stronger, Iran weakens day by day” thanks to Washington’s “economic fury.”
U.S. policy seeks to exploit divisions within Iran’s leadership. The Trump administration believes it holds all the cards and aims to decisively dismantle Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted that the Iranian regime remains deeply divided and dysfunctional, which could impede any negotiations. Washington remains cautious about any ceasefire proposals, doubting the legitimacy and effectiveness of the current center of power.
On the battlefield, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain high despite a ceasefire agreement and talks in Islamabad that did not yield a final outcome. There are mutual accusations between the Iranian “Khatam al-Anbiya” command and U.S. forces of violating the quiet. After a short lull, new clashes and strikes on vessels from both sides followed, confirming the fragility of the truce and the high risk of renewed escalation.
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Who is Mojtaba Khamenei and what role did he play in Iranian politics before becoming Supreme Leader after his father’s death? - Mojtaba Khamenei is the second son of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Before coming to power he did not hold official government posts, but for a long time was a key figure in the shadow structures of power. In particular, he oversaw religious endowments, influenced personnel decisions within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and maintained ties with conservative circles. His role grew as his father’s health declined, and he was considered a “gray cardinal” managing the transfer of power.
What is the “Khatam al-Anbiya” command and why does it play a key role in Iranian military operations? - “Khatam al-Anbiya” is the unified command of the IRGC responsible for coordinating all of Iran’s military and missile operations. It was created to centralize command during the Iran–Iraq War and today controls strategic forces, including missile forces, air defense, and cyber units. Its key role stems from the fact that it plans overseas operations (for example, in Syria and Yemen) and provides protection for the nuclear program.
Why is Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, alongside IRGC commanders, considered one of the real centers of power in the current Iranian leadership? - Ghalibaf has direct influence through his position as speaker, but his real power is based on a long career in the IRGC (he was an air force commander) and his closeness to the Supreme Leader. Together with IRGC commanders he represents the military-political elite that controls key sectors of the economy (through foundations and sanctions circumvention) and makes security decisions, often bypassing civilian institutions. This makes them de facto “power centers” dominating reformists and technocrats.
Full version: واشنطن تبحث عن صاحب القرار في طهران