The Syrian government is regaining control over key eastern regions of the country, including the provinces of Al-Hasakah, Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor, creating conditions for significant economic transformations. Implementation of the January 18 agreement between Damascus and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is expected, providing for the integration of autonomous institutions into state structures and the transfer of management of oil and gas fields to central authorities. The extension of the ceasefire agreement for 15 days creates conditions for a new phase of governance in the region.
The Al-Jazira region in northeastern Syria, covering about 41% of the country's territory, has exceptional economic importance. This area, known as the "breadbasket of Syria," contains roughly 64% of the country's water resources and produces more than half of the national wheat harvest, exceeding 2 million tonnes annually. In addition, the region accounts for about 62% of cotton production, making it critically important for the textile industry and food security.
The economic statistics are impressive: the provinces of Raqqa, Al-Hasakah and Deir ez-Zor together produce more than 55% of Syrian wheat, and the region's livestock sector is estimated at approximately $3.17 billion. Before the crisis, Al-Hasakah held the largest sheep population in Syria—over 3 million heads. Although the region's contribution to the national economy fell from 27% at the start of the millennium to 19% before 2011 due to conflicts, its recovery could become a turning point.
Experts emphasize the structural significance of these changes. Dr. Usama al-Qadi, advisor to the Ministry of Economy and Industry, notes that regaining control over the eastern regions will allow the state to secure important revenues for the treasury, improve living standards and create broad employment opportunities in the oil, agricultural and industrial sectors. Economist Abdus-Salam al-Omar adds that this gives the state an opportunity to revise wheat policy and reduce dependence on imports.
However, the region faces serious challenges. Analyst Yunis al-Karim points to the need to ensure security, combat the effects of drought and provide "genuine support" for water supply and the restoration of infrastructure such as the fertilizer plant. He also warns that hasty investments could lead to losses, as international companies might exploit weaknesses in state data and capacities.
Regarding energy, Syria has oil reserves estimated between 2.5 and 7 billion barrels, mainly concentrated in Deir ez-Zor and Al-Hasakah, while proven gas reserves are about 285 billion cubic meters. Experts believe that gradual restoration of production could first meet domestic needs and then allow export of surpluses, but this requires institutional management, technical studies and rehabilitation of infrastructure.
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- What was the status and structure of governance in the provinces of Al-Hasakah, Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor before the government regained control? - Before the government regained control in 2019–2020, most of these provinces were governed by Kurdish administrations that were part of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES). This administration functioned as a de facto autonomous entity with its own security organs (the Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF), a judicial system and local self-government bodies (civil councils), with the support of the US-led international coalition. The Syrian government retained control only over certain enclaves, such as parts of Deir ez-Zor city and Qamishli.
- What does the Al-Jazira region represent in the Syrian context besides its economic role? - In the Syrian context, Al-Jazira is a historical and geographical name for the northeastern region of the country, covering mainly Al-Hasakah province and parts of Deir ez-Zor. Beyond its economic role (oil, gas, agriculture), the region has important ethno-demographic significance, being home to significant Kurdish, Assyrian, Armenian and Arab populations. Over the past decade, the term has also become associated with the Kurdish political project of autonomy within the AANES framework.
- Which specific "autonomous institutions" are mentioned in the January 18 agreement and how did they function? - The January 18, 2021 agreement between the Syrian government and the Kurdish Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) mentions autonomous institutions such as local civil councils, internal security bodies (Asayish), as well as administrations in the fields of education, health and public utilities. They operated alongside state institutions, funded by local resources and, partially, international aid, providing day-to-day governance in areas under AANES control.
Full version: سوريا.. ثروات ضخمة وتحول اقتصادي بعد استعادة المنطقة الشرقية