Oil prices rose on Thursday after two days of sharp declines, supported by lingering uncertainty over a possible agreement between the United States and Iran. Brent futures gained $1.05 (1%) to $106.53 a barrel, while WTI rose $0.79 (0.80%) to $99.79. The gains followed losses of more than 5.6% on Wednesday after remarks by Donald Trump about progress in the talks, although he also threatened new strikes if Tehran does not agree to a deal.
Trump’s comments that the talks had entered a “final phase” sparked hopes of a possible breakthrough, but Iran warned of any attacks and announced measures to increase control over the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran said it intends to create an authority to manage waterways and to introduce a “controlled maritime zone” in the strait, through which before the war passed about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas consumption. The de facto closure of the strait occurred in response to US and Israeli strikes that sparked the war on February 28, and despite a ceasefire in April, shipping restrictions remain.
Analyst Yan An of Haotong Futures noted that the sharp price drop reflected the market’s expectation of a possible diplomatic breakthrough. However, he added that “if Trump insists on Iran making no concessions, reaching an agreement seems unlikely, and the outcome of the talks could change dramatically.” This political uncertainty remains the main market driver: any escalation or diplomatic progress can quickly shift the balance.
Reduced supplies from the Middle East have accelerated withdrawals from commercial and strategic reserves of consumer countries, raising concerns about depletion of global stocks. The US Energy Information Administration reported a record withdrawal of about 10 million barrels from the strategic reserve last week, while commercial crude inventories fell by 7.9 million barrels to 445 million. Gasoline stocks dropped by 1.5 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose by 372,000 barrels.
Experts warn that continued blockade or restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz would sharply reduce global oil and petroleum product stocks. Minyu Gao, senior researcher at China Futures, said: “Lower inventories will make it difficult to keep prices low. With the strait closed, onshore global stocks of oil products and crude could fall below five-year lows for this time of year.”
Thus, the market is oscillating between two opposing factors: a possible diplomatic breakthrough that could lower prices, and real concerns about stock depletion and shipping restrictions that support rises. Further price movements will depend on the progress of US–Iran talks, the pace of reserve withdrawals, and the extent of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz. Uncertainty remains high, risking sharp price swings with any new diplomatic or military developments.
Commentary on the news
Why has control of the Strait of Hormuz become Iran’s key lever in talks with the US? — The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic corridor through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes. By threatening to close the strait, Iran can sharply raise global energy prices, forcing the US and its allies to make concessions in nuclear and regional negotiations. However, a full blockade is unlikely because it would provoke a military response, so Iran uses a “managed chaos” tactic — detaining tankers, inspections, and demonstrations of military power.
Which specific US and Israeli strikes led to the war on February 28, and how does this affect current talks? — The reference to a “war on February 28” is not confirmed by authoritative international sources — it is likely a distorted mention of clashes in February 2024 (US strikes on pro-Iranian groups in Iraq/Syria in response to attacks on coalition bases) or February airstrikes by Israel on IRGC targets in Syria. Such incidents increase mutual distrust in the talks: Tehran insists on pre-emptive sanctions relief, while Washington demands non-proliferation guarantees.
What is the “authority to manage waterways” that Iran is creating, and how might a “controlled maritime zone” differ from a full blockade of the strait? — Iran plans to create a state body similar to a “Suez Canal of Iran” that would coordinate ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz, formally citing international law (for example, mandatory pilotage or environmental controls). A “controlled maritime zone” would mean introducing paid services, mandatory inspections, or delays for hostile vessels, but without a full closure — this allows Iran to exert pressure without crossing the “red line” (a full blockade) that would trigger US military intervention.
Full version: النفط يرتفع مع تعثر مفاوضات إيران وتراجع المخزونات الأمريكية