A recent wave of U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets and Tehran’s retaliatory actions have once again raised the question of whether the current standoff will grow into a full-scale war or remain a limited conflict amid negotiations. The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said it had completed a series of strikes on 90 targets, including air-defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, stockpiles of missiles and drones, and naval infrastructure. In its statement, CENTCOM emphasized that the actions were a response to Iran’s violation of a ceasefire arrangement, when three commercial vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, and that they were intended to force Tehran to pay a steep price.
In response, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it carried out strikes on key facilities at U.S. bases “Arifjan” and “Ali al-Salem” in Kuwait, as well as “Al Jafair” and “Sheikh Isa” in Bahrain. Iranian military officials warned that if aggression is repeated, their response would be expanded and cover other American bases in the region. Both sides accuse each other of violating a previously signed memorandum of understanding, and U.S. President Donald Trump said the document “has lapsed” amid the current tensions.
According to Colonel Nidal Abu Zeid, there is a clear trend toward escalation: the first wave of strikes hit 80 targets in four hours, while the second hit 90 targets in six hours. The analyst noted that the United States is not seeking “traditional military operations,” as it did before the ceasefire, but is using a new tactic he calls “easy hunting.” This approach focuses on hitting high-value, rather than numerous, targets—allowing the political and financial costs to be reduced and avoiding a direct clash with Iran.
Abu Zeid also points out that Washington is deliberately calling these actions “strikes,” not an “operation,” to get around the requirement for approval by Congress. In his view, selecting high-value targets is meant to weaken the IRGC’s ability to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Iran, unwilling to start a full-scale war, demonstrates a symmetrical response by attacking traditional targets in Gulf countries rather than directly targeting American warships, which makes its retaliatory measures cheaper.
Brigadier General Ilyas Hanna emphasizes that the range of U.S. strikes has expanded, reaching such strategically important areas as Bushehr, where the “Assaluyeh” plant is located, providing 70% of gas supply for Iran’s power sector. He believes Iran’s retaliatory actions—based on control of the Strait of Hormuz and “horizontal escalation” toward countries in the region—are extremely dangerous. In Hanna’s view, destroying the IRGC’s sea forces in the strait could restore shipping, but if President Trump decides to intensify pressure, there could be an attempt at a naval blockade of Iran.
Despite expectations of war resuming, Ilyas Hanna believes both sides are, for now, operating in a “gray zone” and are not fully willing to break the memorandum of understanding. According to him, Washington and Tehran are “negotiating under fire” because of the ambiguity of the points in that document, and the Strait of Hormuz has become the arena for such a “bargain with force.” Notably, CENTCOM said the strikes were carried out from warships using precision-guided missiles, while, in the analyst’s view, Iran prefers targets in Kuwait and Bahrain—avoiding direct attacks on American ships in the region.
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What is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and why is it a key force in Iran’s political and economic system, including its influence on foreign policy and defense? — The IRGC is an elite military-political formation created after the 1979 Islamic Revolution to defend its ideals. Unlike the regular army, the IRGC controls the missile program, nuclear infrastructure, and key economic sectors (energy, construction, finance) through companies under its control. They directly influence foreign policy by supporting allied forces in Lebanon (“Hezbollah”), Syria, Yemen, and Iraq, enabling Tehran to project influence abroad. IRGC leadership often holds high government posts, making it an independent center of power.
Why is the “Assaluyeh” gas-processing complex near Bushehr considered critical for Iran’s energy supply, and how does its vulnerability affect Tehran’s strategy? — “Assaluyeh” is the largest gas-processing hub located on the shore of the Persian Gulf. It processes gas from the South Pars field, the world’s largest, accounting for about 70% of Iran’s gas production. The complex supplies power to cities, industry, and export shipments. Its vulnerability (for example, in the event of military strikes or sabotage) forces Tehran to disperse facilities, strengthen air defenses, and diversify export routes (including smuggling supplies through Oman). Iran’s strategy includes maintaining control over “Assaluyeh” as a bargaining chip in negotiations and as a threat of regional destabilization if it is attacked.
What is the “memorandum of understanding” between the United States and Iran mentioned in the article, and what circumstances led to its signing and subsequent breakdown? — In the context of Iranian-U.S. relations, a “memorandum of understanding” usually refers to unwritten or confidential arrangements reached through intermediaries (for example, Oman, Qatar). In 2023–2024, a draft was discussed: Iran would limit uranium enrichment (to 60% or lower) and would stop supporting attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf, while the U.S. would unfreeze Iranian assets (about $6 billion) and ease some sanctions. The signing became possible due to mutual interest in reducing escalation (including Israel’s military actions against Iranian sites and the crisis in Yemen). The breakdown happened after the Gaza conflict escalated (October 2023), when Iran intensified proxy forces and the United States imposed new sanctions and deployed a military formation to the region, making compromise politically impossible for both sides.
Full version: Iranian-American escalation.. Will there still be “comfortable hunting” in the “gray zone”?