An agreement between Moscow and Damascus, reached after a year and a half of tense negotiations, could radically alter Russia’s military presence in the Middle East. Under the deal, Hmeimim Air Base and the naval base in Tartus are to be converted into joint training centers. This does not necessarily mean Russia will withdraw completely, but it does imply a significant reduction in its presence at two strategically important facilities that have helped expand Russian influence in the Mediterranean since 1971.
Over the next three months, the civilian facilities at Hmeimim Airport and the berths at Tartus port are expected to be transferred to the control of the Syrian government. At the same time, the parties intend to ensure the uninterrupted operation of the infrastructure. The transition period will likely pass relatively smoothly, although disagreements could arise over equipment, logistical supplies and document archives accumulated over decades.
Over the course of one to three years, the number of Russian service members is expected to gradually decline. The training centers will be able to accommodate instructors, technical specialists and a limited contingent, but not full operational forces with fighter aircraft, air-defense systems and naval units. According to Russian experts, the Russian presence could shrink from several thousand personnel to several hundred specialists.
The most significant strategic loss for Moscow would be Tartus—the only Russian naval base in the Mediterranean. Russia may try to compensate by strengthening maritime cooperation with friendly countries, increasing naval visits to ports in Libya, Algeria and Egypt, and stepping up activity in the Black and Caspian seas. However, Moscow has no full replacement for Tartus with comparable operational depth in the Mediterranean. Hmeimim, by contrast, could eventually be integrated into Syria’s civil aviation network and, within five to seven years, become a major regional hub for passenger and cargo transport.
The future of both bases remains uncertain: Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa said that negotiations on converting them into training centers have not yet concluded. In the author’s view, the current model could become a transitional stage toward the complete withdrawal of foreign military facilities if the domestic situation in Syria stabilizes. However, a hasty abandonment of the Russian bases could upset Syria’s fragile regional balance, as the country continues to grapple with the consequences of a prolonged war.
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Why is Tartus considered strategically important for Russian operations in the Mediterranean, and what capabilities would Moscow lose without a permanent naval base? — Tartus is Russia’s only major naval facility in the Mediterranean and an important logistics and support point. It allows ships to be serviced and resupplied, equipment to be repaired, and Russian forces in the region to be supported in their operations and supply efforts, including routes to the Black Sea, North Africa and the Middle East. Without a permanent base, Moscow would have to rely on temporary access to other countries’ ports, reducing its operational autonomy and complicating the deployment of forces.
How is Hmeimim Airport connected to Russian military operations in Syria, and what obstacles could arise if it is incorporated into the civil aviation network? — Hmeimim serves as Russia’s main military airfield and air-logistics hub in Syria. Personnel, equipment and cargo are transferred through it, and it supports Russian air operations. Incorporating it into the civilian network would require the separation of military and civilian infrastructure, stronger security measures, and the modernization of terminals and air-traffic-control systems. Additional obstacles could include political disagreements, questions over control of the facility and the continued accommodation of Russian military needs.
Who is Ahmed al-Sharaa, and what role does his transitional government play in negotiations over the future of Russian facilities and foreign military forces in Syria? — Ahmed al-Sharaa is a Syrian political and military leader who headed the transitional administration after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government. His transitional government is seeking to consolidate control over the country and revise agreements concerning the presence of foreign forces. It is therefore taking part in negotiations over the status of the Russian facilities in Tartus and Hmeimim, as well as the future of other foreign military contingents, seeking security guarantees, political and economic concessions, and recognition of Syrian sovereignty.
Full version: What will happen to the Russian bases in Syria?