Tensions in Syria are rising amid Israeli strikes on military facilities and disagreements over Turkey’s presence and its support for Damascus. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country would not tolerate a Turkish military presence that could threaten Israel. His remarks came after eight airstrikes hit the runway of the Abu al-Duhur military airbase in the eastern part of Idlib province, damaging the facility’s infrastructure.
Political analyst Mahmoud Alloush believes Israel’s actions are aimed not only at preventing the possible deployment of Turkish forces at the base. In his view, Israel is seeking to prevent the rebuilding of a new Syrian army, extend its demand for disarmament from the south of the country to all of Syria, and influence relations between Damascus and Ankara. Israel views Turkish assistance to the Syrian authorities as a threat and is effectively offering Syria a choice: accept its vision for the country’s future or face the consequences of cooperation with Turkey.
According to Alloush, Israel is trying to draw Syria and Turkey into a broader confrontation on Syrian territory. Damascus, however, has no interest in war. President Ahmed al-Sharaa has warned of attempts to impose a conflict on the country that does not serve its interests. The Syrian leadership is relying on diplomatic channels and is ready to discuss a security agreement with Israel. Nevertheless, negotiations that have continued for around a year and a half repeatedly reach an impasse after each new escalation of Israeli military activity.
Alloush believes Damascus is unlikely to accept demands that limit its military potential or strategic ties with its partners, above all Turkey. In his assessment, Israel is unable on its own to determine the structure of the Syrian army or the foreign alliances of the new state. Further developments could lead either to a revision of the rules governing the confrontation between Israel, Syria and Turkey, along with intensified behind-the-scenes contacts, or to a more complex escalation that would be difficult to stop.
Military expert Nouar Kabakibo says Israel’s current policy is systematic and began in December 2024 with an expansion of strikes on Syrian military facilities. Ground incursions, the establishment of bases and other violations on the ground followed. Initially, the main area of pressure was southern Syria; in March 2025, Israel also attacked and disabled the airfields at Palmyra and Tiyas (T4). The latest justification for new strikes has been the Turkish presence, while any incident—for example, the interception of a weapons depot or shipment allegedly bound from Syria for Lebanon—could be used to substantiate claims of a threat to Israeli security.
Kabakibo believes Israel is thereby sending Turkey a signal that it is prepared to attack any facility it considers dangerous, including targets near the Turkish border or in areas historically associated with Ankara’s influence. The expert also warned that Netanyahu continues to act contrary to US restrictions. According to him, the United States may try to reduce the scale of Israeli strikes or deal with their consequences, but it is not always capable of preventing the operations. As an example, he cited the 2007 strike on a Syrian nuclear facility in Deir ez-Zor, carried out by Israel despite the absence of US support.
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Why are the Palmyra and Tiyas airfields of such strategic importance for controlling airspace and moving forces in central Syria? — The Palmyra and Tiyas (T4) airbases are located in central Syria, between the coast, Damascus, the desert and the Euphrates Valley. They make it possible to control air routes over vast desert areas, rapidly deploy troops and equipment, support operations against ISIS* and protect communications routes leading to the east of the country. Tiyas is also important as a major military hub with runway infrastructure and supply facilities.
What is Turkey’s current military presence in Syria, and on what grounds does Ankara support the Damascus authorities? — Turkey maintains a military presence mainly in northern Syria: at bases and observation posts, as well as through support for allied Syrian formations in areas under its de facto control. Ankara justifies its policy on national-security grounds—above all, countering Kurdish formations that it links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, combating terrorism, preventing a new wave of refugees and creating conditions for their return. At the same time, the extent and form of its support specifically for the Damascus authorities depend on the particular political period. Turkey may support dialogue with the Syrian government without abandoning its own military leverage or security demands along the border.
What was the Syrian nuclear facility in Deir ez-Zor that Israel struck in 2007, and why does the episode still influence regional calculations? — It was a facility under construction in the al-Kibar area on the banks of the Euphrates. In 2011, the International Atomic Energy Agency stated that the site was probably an almost-completed nuclear reactor intended to produce plutonium. Syria denied that the facility had a military purpose and did not grant inspectors full access. Israel destroyed the facility in September 2007 and officially confirmed the operation only in 2018. The episode remains significant as an example of a preemptive strike against a suspected nuclear program, a demonstration of Israel’s readiness to act independently, and a warning to Iran and other states in the region about the consequences of covert military nuclear construction.
Full version: Messages of Fire to Ankara: Where Is Israel’s Syrian Adventure Heading?