Against the backdrop of a fragile truce, Tehran is preparing for a likely resumption of hostilities after the expiration of the 60-day period envisaged by the US Authorization for Use of Military Force. While the US administration tends to consider the current ceasefire a de facto end to combat operations, Iranian analysts and military officials believe a resumption of strikes is more likely than a long-term stabilization. This difference in interpretation creates tension and time pressure on decision-making in both capitals.
Iran’s deterrence strategy has undergone notable changes: Tehran has expanded the list of potential targets for retaliatory strikes to include military ships and aircraft carriers. Official statements from Iranian military officials warn that even a limited American strike would be met with a “broad and painful” response that goes beyond a symmetrical reaction. The command of "Хатам аль-Анбия" has announced full readiness, a concrete target bank, and preparedness for complex scenarios, including ground clashes.
Alongside military preparations, Washington is stepping up pressure by nonmilitary means, in particular by discussing an extension of a naval blockade on Iran. Tehran views these steps as hostile actions that could justify retaliatory measures. Iranian leadership is using deterrent rhetoric to raise the cost of any intervention while trying to preserve room for political maneuvering and avoid a full-scale conflict.
On the diplomatic front, serious disagreements persist over the terms of negotiations and the limits of discussed issues. Tehran rejects haste on the nuclear file and insists on separating the paths to settlement. Iran has put forward a three-stage proposal that envisages an end to the war and guarantees against its resumption in exchange for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of restrictions, as a preparation for returning to the nuclear negotiating table. However, these initiatives have not yet found understanding in Washington.
While regional and international mediation efforts continue, Tehran is pursuing two parallel courses: heightened military readiness in case of a strike and cautious diplomatic engagement to prevent full-scale escalation. The balance between these directions will determine further developments — whether a temporary stabilization or a broader confrontation if one side decides that battlefield and political costs permit such a step.
News Commentary
What is the command of "Хатам аль-Анбия" and what role does it play in Iran’s defense system? – The command of "Хатам аль-Анбия" is the central unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responsible for Iran’s air and missile defense. It coordinates all air defense assets, including systems protecting key facilities (nuclear centers, oil infrastructure, and military bases). Its role is to ensure an “impregnable shield” for the country, which became particularly relevant after escalations with Israel and the United States.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important to Iran and how is its control used as a bargaining tool? – The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime passage through which about 20% of the world’s oil transits. For Iran, it is a strategic lever: in the event of conflict it can close the strait, triggering a global energy crisis. Tehran uses the threat of blockage as pressure in negotiations with the West, especially in the context of sanctions and the nuclear deal. This is a classic example of “power-from-position” politics, where control over resources becomes a trump in diplomacy.
What does Iran’s three-stage proposal consist of, and how does it relate to the nuclear negotiations? – Iran’s three-stage proposal foresees: 1) recognition by the US and EU of Iran’s right to enrich uranium to a certain level; 2) phased lifting of sanctions in exchange for IAEA verification; 3) a return to full compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). It is an attempt to unfreeze talks by offering Western countries a “deal without ultimatums” while preserving Iran’s key nuclear achievements. This scheme reflects Tehran’s longstanding tactic — using diplomacy to relieve pressure without abandoning technological progress.
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