According to an investigation by the British newspaper The Guardian, amid rising tensions in the Middle East, Iran has significantly improved its ability to strike U.S. military bases and critical infrastructure in the region. The development of its missile program, the use of satellite imagery, and the borrowing of tactical methods from the war in Ukraine have enabled Tehran to increase the accuracy and destructive power of its attacks, as well as identify vulnerabilities in U.S. air-defense systems deployed in the region.
A key example was an attack on the Muwafaq al-Salti air base in Jordan, which was protected by the advanced THAAD missile defense system. As a result of the strike, three U.S. servicemembers were killed, and satellite images published by Iranian media showed significant damage to facilities at the base. The Pentagon is conducting an investigation to determine why the system failed to intercept the missile, a finding that underscores Iran’s ability to deliver effective strikes even against well-defended targets.
Andreas Krieg, an expert at King’s College London, said Iran’s missile arsenal has undergone a “real transformation.” In his view, this change is not only about increasing the number of missiles, but also about simultaneously improving intelligence, guidance systems, the maneuverability of warheads, and the planning methods for complex attacks. U.S. intelligence indicates that a significant portion of the program remains effective despite previous strikes that Washington said had weakened Iran’s capabilities.
The role of China is also examined separately: the United States imposed sanctions on Chinese companies suspected of providing Iran with satellite images of U.S. military sites, including bases with “Patriot” and THAAD systems. However, Siddharth Kushal, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), offers a more restrained assessment. He believes Iran is mainly focused on fixed facilities whose coordinates can be obtained from publicly available commercial satellites, and that there is no clear evidence so far that Tehran used foreign intelligence to attack highly sensitive mobile or operational targets.
The possible impact of Russian experience is also discussed. The tactics of Iranian attacks resemble Moscow’s actions in Ukraine: drones are used first to wear down or divert air defenses, and then more powerful ballistic missiles are launched. Experts emphasize that such similarity does not necessarily indicate direct Russian training—rather, both sides are observing modern wars and exchanging lessons learned, even if not directly.
Technically, Iran’s ballistic missiles use a combination of the U.S. GPS system, China’s BeiDou, and Russia’s GLONASS to improve guidance accuracy. Some missiles are equipped with warheads capable of changing their trajectory during the terminal phase of descent, as well as thermal and optical sensors for self-guidance at the final stage. This reduces the effectiveness of electronic warfare and creates serious problems for U.S. air-defense systems such as the “Patriot” and THAAD—whose interceptor stockpiles have been depleted due to intensive use.
Ultimately, the report’s authors stress that Iran’s buildup of missile capabilities is becoming an increasingly growing challenge for the United States and its allies. Tehran’s convergence with Moscow, Beijing, and Pyongyang reflects an exchange of interests and technologies rather than the formation of a full military alliance modeled on NATO, but the coordinated actions of these countries are becoming more evident over the long term.
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- What role does the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) play in developing Iran’s missile capabilities and planning attacks on regional targets? — The IRGC is Iran’s key military and political institution that independently (separately from the regular army) develops, produces, and operates ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles. The IRGC Aerospace Force is responsible for all stages: from R&D to operational planning for attacks. It is the IRGC that coordinates strikes on targets in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, using its own intelligence data and satellite imagery.
- What specific types of ballistic missiles (for example, “Shahab-3,” “Emad,” “Khorramshahr”) are in Iran’s arsenal, and what are their key characteristics? — Iran’s arsenal includes: “Shahab-3” (range up to 2,000 km, warhead about 1 ton, based on North Korea’s Nodong); “Emad” (a modernization of Shahab-3 with a separating warhead and improved accuracy, range about 1,700 km); “Khorramshahr” (a new generation, range about 2,000–2,500 km, can carry multiple warheads, and has a maneuvering stage). The arsenal also includes “Sajil” (solid-fuel, range about 2,500 km) and tactical missiles “Fateh-110” and “Zolfaghar” (300–700 km).
- How does Iran use its own drones (in particular, “Shahed-136” and “Mohajer-6”) to suppress air-defense systems before launching ballistic missiles, and how does this tactic differ from Russia’s? — Iran uses what is known as a “swarm” attack: dozens of “Shahed-136” drones (kamikaze) and “Mohajer-6” (reconnaissance and guidance/target-correction) drones are launched in mass to overwhelm air-defense assets, identify their positions, and hit some of the targets. After suppressing them and creating gaps in the defense, ballistic missiles are launched either simultaneously or with a short delay—missiles that, at the edge of what the air defenses can handle, can strike critical facilities. The difference from Russian tactics is that Russia more often uses drones as decoys or to divert attention, while Iran focuses on actually disabling air-defense systems with drones, conserving expensive missiles.
- Which Iranian organizations (IRGC Aerospace Forces, Iranian Space Agency) directly handle obtaining and processing satellite images for missile targeting? — The IRGC Aerospace Forces (as a separate command) use both military satellites (for example, “Noor-1” and “Noor-2”) and commercial imagery purchased through intermediaries. The Iranian Space Agency (ISA) is formally responsible for civilian programs, but its terrain and coordinate data are passed to the IRGC. Electronic intelligence units within the IRGC also process imagery from foreign satellites (for example, Russia’s “Resurs-P” or Chinese satellites/apparatuses that Iran receives through agreements).
Full version: Did China and Russia play a role in Iran’s targeting of U.S. bases?