Since the start of the US–Israeli military campaign against Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has become the main choke point strangling the global economy. About 20% of all the planet’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass through this narrow corridor. The effective closure of the strait has led to nearly 2,000 ships being stuck in the Persian Gulf awaiting passage, and rumors of a possible full blockade have heightened fears of a global recession. Even if the strait can be reopened, shipping will face enormous obstacles due to mines and sky-high insurance premiums.
Iranian forces closed the strait after strikes on Tehran on February 28, using control of it as leverage in negotiations with Washington. The United States responded with a naval blockade of Iranian ports and the strait itself, intercepting vessels linked to Tehran — a move Iran called “piracy.” Previously Iran allowed “friendly” ships or those that paid fees to pass, but it has now completely closed the passage to all foreign vessels until the blockade is lifted. Tehran even published a map of mined zones and alternative routes near its coasts.
The US announced the start of mine-clearing operations using destroyers and underwater drones, but the Pentagon warned Congress that full clearance could take up to six months. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said, “We are confident we can remove any detected mines within a reasonable timeframe.” However, experts warn that guaranteeing a complete absence of mines is practically impossible, and even a tiny residual risk could make insurers refuse coverage and paralyze navigation.
Insurers have set a minimum security condition for the strait — a sustained commitment by all parties to uphold peace and freedom of navigation. “An explicit promise from all parties to guarantee freedom of passage along international routes is required,” explained Monroe Anderson of Vessel Protect. According to him, the insurance market can provide coverage if Iranian authorities give security guarantees, but even after reopening a significant risk will remain.
War risk premiums have soared: before the war they were less than 0.25% of a vessel’s value, and now range from 1% to 5% and higher depending on type, cargo and owner. For example, a ship valued at $100 million paid about $250,000 for a passage, but now might pay up to $5 million. Experts expect prices to keep rising if attacks continue, and only a durable ceasefire could gradually bring them back toward prewar levels — but not quickly.
Uncertainty due to the presence of mines and instability in Iranian command remains a constant threat. Lack of clear leadership could mean ships are granted permission to pass but then suddenly come under attack, as happened with the Indian tanker Sanmar Gerald. Analysts note that such a situation plays into Iran’s hands in an asymmetric war: accurately assessing risks is almost impossible amid a constantly changing environment. Returning to normal shipping will require not only physical mine clearance, but political and legal guarantees, as well as a full reassessment by insurance companies.
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Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important specifically for Iran, not just for the global economy, and how did it become its lever of pressure? - For Iran the strait is not just a trade route, but a strategic “key” to its survival: nearly all of the country’s oil passes through it (exports are the main source of foreign currency). Geographically Iran controls the northern shore of the strait and adjacent islands (for example, Abu Musa), which allows it to quickly obstruct shipping. This became a lever of pressure because Iran uses the threat of closing the strait as a bargaining tool in talks over its nuclear program or sanctions — the global economy (about 20% of world oil) immediately reacts to such statements.
What are the “passage fees” that Iran previously collected from ships, and how is this related to its informal control over the strait? - Historically Iran demanded that ships pay tolls for passing through Hormuz, citing “security expenses” and outdated international norms (for example, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which allows coastal states to levy charges in special zones). In practice this was informal control: Iran detained vessels on the pretext of nonpayment, inspected cargoes (often searching for contraband or weapons) and used this to intimidate. Under sanctions such “fees” became a way to indirectly force Western companies to acknowledge Tehran’s authority in the region.
What role does the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) play in controlling the strait and why does instability in Iranian command create additional risks? - The IRGC is the de facto master of the strait: their naval forces operate fast boats, submarines and coastal missile systems (for example, “Hormuz-2” and “Kalibr”). They act independently of the regular navy and often use unconventional tactics — swarms of boats, mine-laying or seizing tankers. Command instability (internal conflicts among generals, changes in IRGC leadership amid the 2022–2023 protests) leads to unpredictability: individual units may provoke incidents without orders from the center, risking accidental escalation with the US or Saudi Arabia.
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