The decision to impose a nationwide internet shutdown in Iran has fundamentally altered the country’s economic activity. War intersected with the fragility of the economic structure, placing entire sectors under sudden restrictions that disrupted market processes and disorganized accustomed workflows dependent on digital communications. According to an Al Jazeera report by Amer Lafy, the internet outage directly affected the details of production and trade, forcing thousands of companies to face unprecedented challenges in managing business in an environment deprived of digital stability. An example from a food factory in a Tehran suburb, cited by Sadr ad-Din Niaurani, illustrates how external marketing channels were disrupted and the ability to close deals—previously conducted via electronic platforms—declined, despite thirty years of experience.
Many Iranian companies rely on digital services in their daily operations. The blockage caused disruptions in sales and distribution systems and damaged supply chains connected to external networks. Before the war, a stable internet connection allowed some factories to expand their international presence and increase sales by about 40%. Today, firms are keeping staff despite financial pressure, trying to avoid losing accumulated expertise. This picture repeats across many sectors, reflecting limited ability to adapt to a prolonged outage.
According to estimates by the Iran Chamber of Commerce, direct losses from the blockage amount to about $40 million per day, while the total cost including indirect effects reaches roughly $80 million per day. These figures reflect additional pressure on an economy already suffering from slowing growth and high unemployment, increasing risks to business stability and the competitiveness of various sectors. Experts warn that continued shutdowns could force some companies to scale back operations or exit the market entirely.
Economist Peyman Molavi believes the digital economy has become the foundation of modern activity, and its absence leads to job losses and reduced market efficiency, especially in economies with existing structural problems. The consequences extend to small and medium-sized enterprises that depend on digital platforms to attract customers, increasing the likelihood of their closure due to falling revenues and rising operating costs. These pressures exacerbate the social situation, causing loss of daily income for broad segments of the population.
Iranian authorities justify the shutdown citing security concerns related to the war, pointing to the risk of networks being used for cyberattacks or threats to critical infrastructure. This led to broad restrictions on access to the global internet. In response, the government has increased reliance on the domestic network and launched the "Internet Pro" service, which provides limited access to certain categories such as industrial enterprises, healthcare, and universities. However, the coverage of this service does not include most affected economic activities, leaving companies vulnerable amid ongoing restrictions.
Economists warn of long-term consequences if the blockade continues, including deeper impacts on production and transport chains, reduced investor confidence in the business environment, and possibly an accelerated exit of some companies or their reorientation toward external alternatives. The economic picture shows a decline in the pace of digital activity, which had been an important source of growth in recent years, while the lack of international connectivity limits this sector’s ability to support the macroeconomy. The future of economic activity remains tied to how long internet restrictions last and whether the government can find a practical balance between security requirements and business continuity during this difficult period both domestically and abroad.
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What role does the Iran Chamber of Commerce play in the country’s economic policy and why do its damage estimates carry weight? — The Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture (ICCIMA) is a quasi-governmental organization that brings together the private sector and plays a key role in shaping economic policy. It advises the government on trade, sanctions, and regulation, and its damage estimates are valued because the chamber relies on data directly from businesses, reflecting the real impact of decisions on entrepreneurs. In the context of Iran’s isolation due to sanctions, its voice becomes especially influential as it represents the interests of those suffering from restrictions.
What is the Iranian domestic network and how does the "Internet Pro" service attempt to replace the global internet for business? — The Iranian domestic network, or the National Information Network (NIN), is an infrastructure isolated from the global internet, created by the government to control traffic and ensure cybersecurity. The "Internet Pro" service is a paid business product that provides limited but faster access to vetted international resources (for example, for email or financial operations), effectively replacing the open global internet for companies. It legalizes partial access to the world network but with censorship, intended to reduce economic damage from full shutdowns.
What precedents of internet shutdowns in Iran (for example, in 2019) explain today’s government decision, and how are they usually linked to security threats? — The most notable precedent was the November 2019 internet blackout after protests over a fuel price increase. At that time, authorities completely cut off the world wide web for several days to prevent protesters from coordinating and from sharing videos of the protests abroad. This is directly connected to security threats: Iran views any mass demonstrations (often economically motivated) as a threat to the regime, and internet shutdowns are used as a tool of "digital suffocation" to isolate protests. Similar decisions are made during spikes in tension, such as during cyberattacks or regional crises, to maintain control over information.
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