The French magazine Le Nouvel Observateur analyzed the situation in the Middle East one month after the start of the large-scale conflict, highlighting five key questions that will determine its further course. The war, dubbed "Epic Wrath," began on 28 February 2026 after strikes by the United States and Israel that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The fate of his son and presumed successor Mojtaba, as well as the question of a political vacuum in Tehran, remain unclear, adding uncertainty to how events will unfold.
The first question concerns the duration of the war. U.S. officials say military objectives could be achieved within weeks without a ground operation, leaving the door open to negotiations, although Tehran refuses dialogue. The second question is about the geographic expansion of the conflict: fighting has spread beyond Iran and Israel. Yemen’s Houthis are striking targets in Israel, and sites in Oman and Kuwait have been attacked. Iran, which controls the Strait of Hormuz, threatens to extend the conflict to the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, which could turn the war into a region-wide one and threaten key maritime routes.
The third question examines the dangerous escalation tied to targeting civilian infrastructure such as energy and desalination facilities. Both sides threaten strikes on vital installations, indicating a shift to a more perilous phase of the war that could directly affect civilians. The fourth question is about the economic consequences. The war has shocked energy markets and caused a sharp rise in oil prices, recalling the 1973 crisis. However, major economies today are less dependent on oil thanks to alternative energy sources, which may mitigate long-term effects, although short-term increases in the cost of living are already being felt.
Special attention is paid to the fifth question — the escalation in Lebanon, where the pro-Iranian group Hezbollah is actively involved in the conflict. This has led to large-scale clashes with Israel in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and the southern suburbs of Beirut. Israel continues bombardments and is attempting to create a buffer zone, while Hezbollah responds with rocket fire. According to the latest figures, 1,142 people have died in Lebanon alone, and more than a million have been forced to flee their homes.
Overall, the analysis shows that the conflict has entered a phase of open attrition, where military calculations, economic risks, and regional balances of power are intertwined. Despite claims of a possible swift military victory or negotiations, there are no clear signs the war will end soon, and its humanitarian and economic consequences continue to worsen.
Commentary on the News
What is the role and authority of the Supreme Leader in Iran’s political system, and how does succession to this position usually occur? - The Supreme Leader (Rahbar) is the highest political and religious authority in Iran, with the final deciding voice on key foreign and domestic policy, security, and appointments to top state and military positions. Succession is carried out by the Assembly of Experts (an elected body of Islamic jurists), which chooses a new leader after the death or removal of the previous one, guided by criteria of religious scholarship, political competence, and popularity among the populace.
Why do control of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb strait have such strategic importance for the global economy and energy supplies? - These straits are critically important maritime chokepoints for global oil shipments. About 20–30% of the world’s seaborne oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, while a significant portion of shipments from the Persian Gulf to Europe and the Americas passes through the Bab-el-Mandeb. Control over them allows influence over global energy prices and creates risks to the energy security of many countries.
What does a "political vacuum" in Tehran mean and which institutions will play key roles in determining the new leader? - A "political vacuum" here means a period of uncertainty and potential power struggle during the change of the Supreme Leader. Key actors in this process will include: the Assembly of Experts (formally electing the new leader), the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as the most powerful security force, the Expediency Discernment Council (as an arbitration body), and influential religious and political factions within the Iranian elite.
Full version: بعد شهر من حرب إيران.. 5 أسئلة حول صراع يتفاقم ويتسع