At the center of the upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and PRC Chairman Xi Jinping in Beijing is the issue of energy security. The main source of tension is the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — a strategic route through which China receives about 55% of its crude oil and a quarter of its liquefied natural gas supplies. Disruptions to shipping have already triggered record increases in energy prices, which has hit the Chinese economy hard, since Beijing is the world’s largest oil importer.
The United States is seeking to use the summit to pressure China to cut purchases of Iranian oil. Analysts say that last year China imported about 1.4 million barrels per day of Iranian oil, amounting to nearly 90% of Iran’s total exports. At the same time, Washington wants to persuade Beijing to resume purchases of American energy resources, which halted in mid-last year amid trade disputes. The US trade deficit with China has already reached $87 billion since the start of the year.
Chinese experts note that Beijing does not intend to yield to pressure and adheres to a strategy of diversifying energy sources. Researcher Xin from Jiangxi University emphasized that China does not demand that other countries accept unfavorable terms, but seeks to create a shared security system without military intervention. He pointed out that it was US strikes on Iran that led to chaos in the region, whereas before that the Strait of Hormuz had remained open to shipping.
Iranian analyst Abbas Aslani believes that Washington is trying to secure Beijing’s support to intensify economic pressure on Tehran, but so far China’s position remains unchanged. According to him, Iran does not back down under pressure; on the contrary, it hardens its rhetoric during conflict, perceiving any concessions as a sign of weakness. At the same time, Aslani warned that the US could in the future use the same pressure mechanisms against China over the South China Sea and Taiwan.
Experts doubt that China will completely replace Iranian oil with American supplies. Xin stressed that Beijing will continue to purchase energy from all suppliers, including the US, Gulf countries and Iran. Security specialist Richard Weitz suggested that an increase in imports of American oil could be part of a “broad deal” that includes tariff reductions and access to advanced technologies. At the same time, Aslani warned that China’s dependence on routes controlled by the US could turn into a “strategic trap,” forcing Beijing to seek alternative supply routes to circumvent sanctions.
Comments on the news
- Why is the Strait of Hormuz considered a critical node for global energy and what alternative routes exist to bypass a possible blockade? — The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime passage through which about 20–25% of global oil trade passes (Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar). Its blockade could trigger a spike in oil prices and a global energy crisis. Alternative routes are limited: Saudi Aramco uses the Petroline (via the Red Sea), the UAE uses the Habshan–Fujairah pipeline (bypassing the strait), but their capacity does not cover the entire volume. In addition, there are plans for overland oil transport through Turkey or Pakistan, but these require significant investment and time.
- How are Iranian society and the economy adapting to years of US sanctions, and how does this affect domestic politics? — The economy adapts through a “resistance economy”: development of import substitution, gray imports via third countries (for example, the UAE, Turkey, China), use of cryptocurrencies and barter (oil in exchange for goods). Society endures high inflation (about 40% in 2023) and rial devaluation, but retains loyalty due to repression and religious identity. This strengthens domestic politics: the authorities use sanctions as justification for suppressing protests and consolidating supporters, while the opposition loses legitimacy (it is accused of collaborating with the enemy).
- Who is Abbas Aslani, and why do his views reflect Iran’s official negotiating position? — Abbas Aslani is a conservative member of the Iranian parliament (Majles), representing the radical wing. His views (distrust of diplomacy with the West, demanding the removal of all sanctions before any concessions) align with the position of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He is not an independent commentator but part of the system, so his statements reflect Tehran’s official line: negotiations are possible only from a position of strength, with no compromises on the nuclear program and regional influence.
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