Mediators from Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan are stepping up efforts to organize direct or semi-direct talks between the United States and Iran within the next 48 hours. According to sources, Islamabad could be a likely venue for such a meeting. These diplomatic maneuvers come amid reports that the US, via Pakistan, has delivered to Iran a 15-point plan aimed at ending the conflict. The mediators' goal is to overcome deep mistrust and begin constructive dialogue.
The Iranian side, however, is highly skeptical of Washington’s intentions, citing past incidents when the US struck Iranian targets during official negotiations. American officials, for their part, acknowledge that the gap between the parties' positions remains significant. They also note that, in their assessment, Iran believes it has leverage over the US due to instability in energy markets and domestic pressure on the American president, which allows Tehran to delay the process.
An additional obstacle to a swift agreement, US representatives say, is a number of Iranian demands they characterize as "extreme" and "unrealistic." In particular, demands for the closure of US military bases in the Persian Gulf and for compensation payments are mentioned. According to the US, such conditions make reaching agreements more difficult than before the outbreak of open confrontation. Leaks about the talks to the press also irritate Tehran, complicating confidential dialogue.
Reportedly, the 15-point US plan concerns key issues including Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, as well as the security of maritime routes. The White House has confirmed that diplomatic efforts are ongoing, but at the same time the US military campaign called "Operation Epic Fury" shows no signs of easing. It is still unclear whether Iran is prepared to accept this plan as a basis for negotiations, and what Israel’s stance will be regarding these proposals.
Iran is facing internal difficulties in formulating a rapid response, including communication problems between various institutions of power and fears that its officials could become targets for Israel if direct meetings are held. The US president said that Iran’s leadership is under significant pressure to come to the negotiating table, and expressed confidence that talks are being held with "the right people" who have a strong interest in reaching an agreement.
News commentary
Which specific US military bases exist in the Persian Gulf, and why is their presence a particularly sensitive issue for Iran? - Major US facilities include Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, bases in the UAE (Al Dhafra) and in Kuwait. Their presence is sensitive for Iran because it sees the Persian Gulf as a zone of its historical influence and security; a US military presence is perceived as a threat to sovereignty, an instrument of pressure and a potential platform for attack.
What is meant by "communication problems between various institutions of power" in Iran, and how does this affect the country’s foreign policy? - This refers to disagreements and lack of coordination between elected bodies (for example, the president and the foreign ministry) and unelected religious-military institutions (such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Guardian Council). This leads to contradictory signals on the international stage, makes conducting consistent negotiations difficult (for example, on a nuclear deal) and can be exploited by internal opponents to derail diplomatic initiatives.
Which past incidents of US attacks on Iranian targets during negotiations might Iran be referring to, and how have they affected trust between the parties? - Iran may point to the killing of General Qasem Soleimani by a US drone in January 2020, which occurred during a period of heightened tensions, as well as to cyberattacks and sanctions imposed during diplomatic processes. These incidents reinforced in Tehran the belief that Washington pursues a "maximum pressure" policy in parallel with negotiations, undermining the basis for mutual trust and the implementation of agreements.
Full version: محادثات مرتقبة.. وساطة ثلاثية تسعى لعقد لقاء أمريكي إيراني خلال يومين