Renowned American commentator Thomas Friedman believes that the conflict between the US and Iran exposes the Trump administration's fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of modern wars and the geopolitical shifts caused by "asymmetric conflicts." Friedman notes that Trump often uses poker terms — both in his conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, claiming that he "has no cards" against Russia, and in relation to Iran's leaders. According to the columnist, betting on an oil blockade to force Tehran to negotiate is naive and does not reflect reality.
The author argues that the American president himself "doesn't have the cards" he thinks he has. Economic pressure may not work because Iran is betting on economic resilience and wields the trump card of the Strait of Hormuz. Friedman describes the confrontation as a contest of wills, where each side tries to force the other to back down using available resources. Such a game of brinkmanship risks uncontrolled escalation.
The article analyzes how technological and military advances have changed the balance of power. Examples include Ukraine using inexpensive drones to strike targets in Russia, and Iran using loitering munitions to attack digital infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. Armed groups have learned to build cheap rockets, while defense systems remain extremely expensive. These examples show that small forces or limited resources can now inflict strategic strikes at minimal cost.
Friedman warns that the world is shifting from the information age to the age of artificial intelligence. Citing experts, he notes that digital tools can substitute people with intelligent agents capable of carrying out complex operations autonomously. Powerful AI models open the way to advanced, self-guiding cyberattacks at low cost, giving "strong cards" to actors who previously lacked influence. Reports indicate that some models can find dangerous vulnerabilities, making it extremely difficult to control their dissemination.
On this basis, Friedman calls for broad international cooperation, especially between the US and China — the two main powers in AI — to create mechanisms to reduce shared risks. He suggests recalling the Cold War-era nuclear arms limitation models to coordinate technical constraints. The author concludes that misjudging "asymmetric war" and ignoring technological change leaves the US in a weaker position than it seems. In an era when digital tools and AI are reshuffling the "cards," old notions of power are useless, and without new understanding of threats and joint action, all sides will remain vulnerable to sudden strategic shocks.
Comments on the news
- How does the Strait of Hormuz factor into Iran's deterrence strategy? — This strait is a key node of global oil trade (about 20% of all oil passes through it). For Iran, control of the strait is a powerful lever of deterrence: the threat of its closure or mining could paralyze the economies of Persian Gulf countries and force the US to forego military escalation, since such a move would immediately trigger a global spike in oil prices.
- Why do Iranian loitering munitions pose a particular threat to digital infrastructure in the Persian Gulf? — Such drones (for example, the Shahed-136) can be launched in swarms and target critical facilities like oil terminals, power plants, or data centers; their low cost and high precision make them an effective means of disabling digital infrastructure, including power grid and communications control systems. They are difficult to intercept, and the damage from an attack can be extensive.
- What are examples of Iran's successful use of asymmetric tactics against the US or its regional allies? — The most prominent example: in 2019 Iran struck Saudi Arabian oil processing facilities (Abqaiq and Khurais) with drones and cruise missiles, temporarily halving its oil output. Also — the use of Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles and proxy forces (the Houthis in Yemen) to attack commercial ships off the coasts of the UAE and Saudi Arabia, forcing the US-led coalition to bear significant defense costs.
Full version: توماس فريدمان: ترامب هو من لا يملك أوراقا رابحة في حرب إيران