American writer and columnist Thomas Friedman sharply criticized U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to start a war with Iran, calling it a reckless act made in hopes of a quick and easy regime change. Friedman compared Trump to a child in an adult's body playing with matches in a gas-filled room, emphasizing that the enormous U.S. military potential combined with a dangerous situation creates catastrophic consequences for the entire world.
According to the columnist, the fundamental mistake of the Trump administration was underestimating the resilience of Iran's leadership. Instead of collapsing under air strikes, Iran demonstrated flexible military capabilities, inflicting damage on Israel and the U.S.'s Arab allies, and establishing control over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. This led to dangerous global economic consequences due to disruptions in energy supplies.
Friedman points out that Trump has been put in a difficult position, his statements about the conflict are contradictory: at times he declares resolve, at others he admits a lack of strategy for reopening the strait. The only remaining option for him becomes threats to destroy Iran's industrial and civilian infrastructure. This indecision, Friedman believes, reflects the absence of a clear plan and chaotic crisis management.
The columnist links such chaotic decision-making to Trump's personnel policy of appointing ministers based on personal loyalty rather than professional competence. As an example he cites the secretary of defense, whose "prayer meetings" at the Pentagon, Friedman argues, turned a geopolitical conflict into a religious war. He reminds readers that the Obama administration addressed the Iran issue through the 2015 nuclear deal, while Trump withdrew from it in 2018 without any alternative strategy.
As a way out of the crisis Friedman proposes a simple two-step plan: preserve the current regime in Iran by giving it desired guarantees, and prevent Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Specifically he proposes that Iran give up more than 430 kilograms of highly enriched uranium in exchange for Washington renouncing regime change and providing official guarantees to end hostilities. Friedman believes such a deal could stop the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, preventing a full-scale regional collapse, although he admits that Trump would be "very lucky" if Iran accepted these terms.
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Why does control of the Strait of Hormuz have such global economic significance, and by what means can Iran exert it? - The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime corridor through which about 20–30% of the world's oil consumption and a significant volume of liquefied natural gas transit. Its blockade or disruptions to shipping could cause a sharp spike in global energy prices and disrupt global supply chains. Iran, with an extensive coastline along the strait, can exert control or threaten closure using its naval forces, coastal missile systems, mines, fast attack boats and asymmetric tactics. This capability serves Tehran as an important strategic lever in regional and international politics.
What exactly did the 2015 nuclear deal provide for, and what were the consequences of the U.S. withdrawal from it in 2018? - The 2015 nuclear deal, officially called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), provided that Iran would significantly reduce its stockpiles of low-enriched uranium, the number of centrifuges for enrichment, and repurpose the heavy-water reactor at Arak. In return many international economic and financial sanctions were lifted. The U.S. withdrawal from the deal in 2018 and the reinstatement of harsh sanctions led Iran to gradually roll back its commitments under the agreement, increasing enrichment levels and stockpiles of nuclear materials. This significantly heightened regional tensions and put the non-proliferation architecture at risk.
What does a stockpile of 430 kg of highly enriched uranium mean for Iran's nuclear program, and how much such material is needed to make one nuclear device? - A stockpile of 430 kg of highly enriched uranium (HEU) means that Iran possesses a substantial amount of nuclear material that could be used for military purposes. To build a simple implosion-type nuclear device, international experts estimate roughly 40–50 kg of HEU enriched to about 90% (weapons grade) is required. Thus, the stated stockpile would theoretically exceed the amount needed for several devices. However, building a functional nuclear bomb requires not only fissile material but also a complex detonation system, delivery mechanisms and other technologies, which Iran, according to official IAEA statements and Iranian authorities, does not yet possess.
Full version: فريدمان: ترمب يلعب بالنار وأمران يُنهيان الحرب على إيران