As the streets of Tehran filled with hundreds of thousands of mourners at the funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, US President Donald Trump in Washington turned the celebration of Independence Day into a triumphant statement about “total victory” over Iran. Delaying his remarks because of a storm, Trump announced that American forces “sank the entire Iranian fleet — 159 ships — and did it in an instant.” As The Guardian notes, the evening became “the strangest show on Earth”: talk of freedom was mixed with personal grievances, election rhetoric, warnings about “communism,” and ended with 850,000 fireworks to the song YMCA.
In Iran, the mourning ceremony lasted an entire week and spread across five cities — from Tehran and Qom to Najaf, Karbala, and Mashhad. Despite a massive display of unity, the roster of foreign delegations was more modest than expected: Moscow was represented by Dmitry Medvedev rather than Vladimir Putin; Beijing limited itself to a deputy head of a parliamentary committee; and among top officials, only the presidents of Tajikistan and Iraq and the foreign minister of the Taliban were present. This gave analysts reason to say that the “axis of resistance” is no longer as monolithic as it has been trying to present itself.
According to Time magazine, the political subtext of the funeral is an attempt to cover a vacuum of power and “forget” last winter’s protests by mobilizing loyal support in an alternative way. Notably, the new Supreme Leader — the son of Mojtaba Khamenei — did not appear at the funeral of his father, preferring to stay in the shadows. This only intensified rumors of an internal struggle within Iran’s ruling elite and the idea that the “great farewell” has become more of a tool for legitimization than a sincere act of mourning.
Against the backdrop of these two spectacles, real diplomacy is taking shape. On June 17, a 14-point framework agreement was signed that is not a peace deal, but merely extends the ceasefire regime for 60 days. The memorandum provides for the complete cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including the Israel–“Hezbollah” front, as well as the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the nuclear dossier — the fate of highly enriched uranium, the right to enrich, the lifting of sanctions, and the unblocking of billions in assets — has been deferred to technical negotiations, which are being conducted under the pressure of time.
Symbolic messages from both capitals narrow the space for compromise: Trump, who said “I beat Iran,” risks getting trapped by his own rhetoric if he has to agree to a partial sanctions rollback. For its part, Tehran, using the funeral to demonstrate mass support, may drag its feet on concessions, fearing it will look weak. Each side is held hostage by its own performance.
Nevertheless, mutual needs remain obvious. Iran urgently needs billions in frozen funds and the resumption of exports through the Strait of Hormuz to save its economy. The United States needs stability in oil markets and diplomatic success that will validate the narrative of “victory” and prevent the resumption of war. Without a deal, both sides will lose — both technologically and politically.
The key takeaway is that neither fireworks in Washington nor funeral processions in Tehran can erase the harsh reality of the negotiation room. What will matter most in the next 60 days is whether loud rhetoric can make way for a pragmatic compromise written away from cameras and podiums. Or will spectacle take precedence over substance, drawing the region into a new spiral of uncertainty?
Comments on the news
Why did funeral processions in honor of Ali Khamenei take place not only in Iranian cities (Tehran, Qom, Mashhad), but also in Iraqi Najaf and Karbala? What significance do these cities have for the Shiite world and for Iranian power? - Najaf and Karbala are sacred cities of Shiism: in Najaf lies the shrine of Imam Ali (the cousin of the Prophet Muhammad and the first Shiite Imam), while in Karbala there is the shrine of Imam Hussein (his grandson, who died a martyr’s death). For the Iranian regime, holding ceremonies in these cities is a way to strengthen religious authority and underscore Iran’s cross-border influence over Shiite communities, especially in Iraq, where Tehran traditionally has significant political and military leverage (through ties with local parties and militias).
Who is Mojtaba Khamenei, and why, after becoming the new Supreme Leader, did he not attend the funeral of his father? What does this indicate about internal struggle within Iran’s elite? - Mojtaba Khamenei (born 1969) is the son of the late Supreme Leader; until recently he served as the head of an influential religious foundation and was considered a potential successor. According to the official account, his absence from the funeral was due to the need to ensure “security and continuity of power.” However, it may also point to hidden disagreements within Iran’s elite: some conservatives fear strengthening a clan-based model of succession, while other factions (including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) may insist on the collective selection of the leader.
What “protests last winter” is the article referring to? How did these events (connected to the death of Mahsa Amini) affect the regime’s legitimacy, and why are they trying to “forget” them through alternative mobilization? - This refers to the mass protests of “Woman, Life, Freedom” (2022–2023), which began after the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in a police station following her alleged improper hijab. Those demonstrations became the most serious challenge to Iran’s theocratic system since the 1979 Islamic Revolution: they called not only the hijab law into question, but also the very legitimacy of the religious leadership. The authorities are trying to “rewrite” the memory of the protests through alternative mobilization — organizing large mourning processions, patriotic rallies, and religious ceremonies to create the impression of public support and overshadow the image of a repressive regime.
Why was Russia represented at the funeral of Iran’s Supreme Leader by Dmitry Medvedev rather than Vladimir Putin? What does this characterize about the current level of Iran–Russia relations and the diplomatic signals between Moscow and Tehran? - The choice of Medvedev (who serves as Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council) instead of President Putin is a typical protocol practice for official high-level state mourning events: leaders generally do not attend another country’s funeral to avoid creating an unnecessary diplomatic focus. Nevertheless, it is also a signal that despite strategic partnership (especially in military and energy spheres), Moscow is keeping its distance: sending a former president rather than an incumbent allows Russia to show respect without excessive closeness that could highlight how dependent Russia might be on Iranian support under sanctions.
Full version: بين واشنطن وطهران.. فيمَ تكمن رسائل الألعاب النارية ومواكب النعوش؟