On the evening of 7 June 2026, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) struck positions in Israel in response to the bombing of a building in the southern suburb of Beirut that took place the same day. The IRGC called the attack a violation of the "new equation" established on 2 June after Tehran threatened to bomb the north of occupied Palestine if the Netanyahu government carried out its threat to strike civilian targets in Beirut. This escalation was part of a series of reciprocal strikes in which each side tried to impose its own conditions on the battlefield.
U.S. President Donald Trump applied significant pressure on Netanyahu by phone, demanding respect for the new equation and that he not take steps to escalate in response to Ababil drone attacks that Israel could not handle. Netanyahu’s decision to bomb the building on 7 June was perceived as an open challenge to that equation. Although there were reports that Washington had been warned of the bombing, suggesting possible approval, the American administration denied this and called for restraint in Iran’s retaliatory actions. These contradictions only deepened mistrust of Trump’s stance, caught between outright support and calls for de-escalation.
Netanyahu’s motives were not only military but also political: he felt constrained by the new equation and sought to disrupt rumors of an imminent agreement with Iran mediated by Pakistan and Qatar. Past experience with Trump showed that moves toward a deal were followed by setbacks and threats to resume military action, making the situation on the ground extremely unstable. This shifting dynamic reproduced a bargaining logic combined with a simultaneous threat of escalation, evoking the proverb about having sun and rain on the same roof.
Since Trump announced a ceasefire after the 40-day war, he has pursued a dual policy: the following 60 days included both negotiations or exchanges of messages and threats to resume the war or carry out partial strikes. Trump tried to present recent shootouts in the Strait of Hormuz and southern Iran not as violations of the arrangement but as part of a broader process of threats and signals. At the same time, Netanyahu sought a full-scale war while conducting operations in Lebanon and Gaza, which made U.S.–Israeli relations swing between support and pressure.
The constraints Trump faced made continued escalation policy extremely difficult: the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, attempts to lift the blockade of Iranian ports, his falling approval ratings, upcoming midterm elections, a worsening economy, preparations for the World Cup, and the celebration of U.S. Independence Day. In addition, frustration grew over the unattainability of the war’s initial objective—regime change in Iran—not only because of the resilience of Iranian leadership and people but also because of Tehran’s effectiveness in managing the conflict politically and militarily. These factors forced the U.S. administration to balance between the need for an agreement to reduce tensions and the risk of sliding with Netanyahu into a large-scale war. Thus, Trump’s priority became seeking arrangements that would cover Lebanon and possibly Gaza, rather than being drawn into the war Netanyahu desires, especially after their latest phone call. With the resumption of exchanges of fire between Iran and Israel on 8 June, Trump must either force Netanyahu to follow his course or accept an escalation that the U.S. cannot politically and economically withstand. The game has turned: Trump has two choices left — compel Netanyahu to de-escalate or descend with him into the abyss of war.
News commentary
What is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and what role does it play in Iran’s political and military system? - The IRGC is an elite politico-military formation created after the 1979 Islamic Revolution to defend the theocratic regime. Unlike the regular army, the IRGC controls the missile program, overseas special operations (including support for Hezbollah and the Houthis), and exerts huge economic influence through affiliated companies. In practice, the IRGC operates like a "state within a state" and is a key instrument of Supreme Leader Khamenei for preserving power.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz strategically important to Tehran and how can Iran use it to pressure its opponents? — About 20% of the world’s oil trade passes through this 33-kilometer strait, making it the planet’s "oil throat." Controlling the strait’s northern shore, Iran can close it with mine-laying, anti-ship missiles, and fast attack craft. The threat of blocking the strait is Tehran’s main trump card in negotiations: it can trigger spikes in oil prices and a global energy crisis, forcing the West to take Iranian interests into account.
Why are Pakistan and Qatar acting as mediators in possible talks between Iran and the U.S., and what motives drive these countries? — Qatar traditionally plays the role of a "neutral venue": Doha maintains good relations with Tehran (the shared South Pars gas field) while also hosting the largest American military base in the region. Pakistan has an interest in a stable Iran because of their 900-kilometer border, the risk of radicalization of Baloch separatism, and the need to import Iranian electricity. Islamabad also wants to demonstrate usefulness to Washington to ease pressure on issues such as its nuclear program and the Taliban.
Full version: انتهت اللعبة وترمب ليس أمامه إلا إنزال نتنياهو عن الشجرة